Dear Nobody,
Two countries that should move very cautiously with their economic development policies over the next half century are China and Russia. China is desperate for cleaner energy to replace coal, and gas is a natural substitute. Fracking in China risks earthquakes. It is still however a fossil fuel and policy makers would be wise to understand the cost externalities, especially in a huge populous community that has been subdued in its democratic initiatives. People will find a way to make energy users accountable for externalities. The chatter I hear says it will be imposed.
Canada's non oil manufacturing decline is a function of its oil and gas sectors moving activity towards polluting the environment and mis-pricing assets not the other way round. If governments can reverse attitudes in short time frames and then cancel billion dollar projects as pollutants, that defines the new public stage of policy, not the other way round. Wind and solar power together are much cheaper taking into account external costs not included in oil pricing. Governments and people generally will demand more appropriate pricing. The subsidization of polluters has to end.
We can have non polluting energy, but we need to figure in the costs of pollution caused by other forms and really get those producers to cover the cleaning operations. That's why strong central government will emerge as increasingly popular because it can conceptually solve massive problems.
Our present flirtation with small independent government arises because of inappropriate liberalization of the financial sector and discontent with unemployment and inequalities of numerous flavours. The present liberalization of the energy sector allowing and in Canada's case encouraging oil and gas will come to an end with a sharp fall in asset values as the world takes into account pollution costs and acts in a centralized way to end pollution. If that does not happen, the natural violence heaped upon the globe will grow and force a change of attitude. The die hard's activities will be decapitated that much is clear.
Suppression of democracy in China cannot avoid the influence of the external costs of pollution and actions of citizens which drive responses sooner rather than later. For China, the thought of cheap Russian gas is a desperate temporary means to an end. Chinese will militarily acquire the resources it needs or buy them. Given Russia's stupid actions in the Crimea, Russia really had no option, but to give in to China. Its amusing to think of it as a Russian policy. Greed on both sides has its dark consequences, an agreement in hell.
My feeling is that if big populous economies don't get to grips with creating a solar future they will be the big losers. We are being driven towards solar energy, not as a choice we make, but as the forces of nature decide for us. Being stupid in the face of a mounting storm is just that, stupidity. That's why I suspect that some countries such as India are better positioned potentially in my view to dominate the world economy rather than China. India has capacity issues but these may disappear?
Putin has already lost the public relations battle outside Russia and people are tired of oil and gas defining economic policy. Battery technology, monster capacitors, fusion technology and crowd sourcing, if nothing else, will quickly move the world towards solar style energy driving out the fossil fuel consuming has beens. I say that as very dependent still on gas. The big project is fusion.
Don't rush your best ideas. Grow them....
Arthur
More at: http://www.woohs.blogspot.com
The importance of naught:
It had the biggest head you ever saw. A great enormous thing, - like nothing. A huge big -- well, like a -- I don't know -- like an enormous big nothing. A.A. Milne, "Winnie The Pooh"
On 11 Jun 2014, at 09:51 am, Anonymous wrote:
Arthur, in spite of the actions in the Ukraine, it would appear that Russia will gain support as a result of their energy position?
"If you haven't the strength to impose your own terms on life, then you must accept the terms it offers you." (T.S. Eliot)
"If you haven't the strength to impose your own terms on life, then you must accept the terms it offers you." (T.S. Eliot)
Good Thoughts Always, Anonymous
On Jun 10, 2014, at 6:39 PM, Arthur wrote:
Don't rush your best ideas. Grow them....ArthurMore at: http://www.woohs.blogspot.comThe importance of naught:It had the biggest head you ever saw. A great enormous thing, - like nothing. A huge big -- well, like a -- I don't know -- like an enormous big nothing. A.A. Milne, "Winnie The Pooh"