I am not American and don't get to vote. My political suppositions and views come from north of the border (Canada) and across the Atlantic (UK), even though I lived in America for over 25 years.
Snowflakes
If you are American and live in an area of the country that has recently had a significant snowfall, you may notice, after I have twigged your interest in the phenomenon, that snow can pile only so high on a branch. How high it builds up depends on the width of the branch. Take any point and land snowflakes on that point and what determines the height that the snowflakes build up is the size of the area under the snowflakes. If you want height and mass in terms of snow you have to have significant area on which to drop your snowflakes. What does this have to do with Obama, apart from the fact that he is black and snow usually is white?
Votes are like snowflakes landing on a branch. What you need to understand is what the branch actual represents, and see that the branch is part of a much larger tree. The winner is the one that can build a network of branches like a tree that people can land on and feel comfortable. Votes will arrive on those regions where people feel most support for their interests. How high the pile is nevertheless depends on how wide the branch is destined to be and how strongly it conveys the interests of voters casting their support.
A Fiddly System
The way the American electoral system works is very much a world of its own. It gets a job done, but it does it clumbsily and to an outsider not really very well. Already some states such as Florida and Michigan where Hilary has stronger support have to engage in great diplomacy in order to have representative impact during the nomination process. This seems fiddly and silly.
Even if a candidate is nominated for the presidential race and then wins most votes, the result is not a clear win. We have seen cases where a presidential candidate receives more votes and yet is not elected as that president of United States. Who becomes president depends on the electoral college. This is the world of American politics.
You don't really know until the last delegate votes are counted who will win party nomination. If anyone thinks the future President Obama is a shoein, one must take into account that although he may be the best thing for America, better than apple pie, he is not going to find the task of attaining the tallest pile of votes anything like a snowfall. The physics and the numbers just aren't there.
Impressions of Front Running Candidates
From what we have seen of Obama, and what he has said one could be encouraged to think that the rest of the world would welcome him with open arms if he were to win the American election. For those outside the United States, Hilary and Barack would be a wonderful breath of fresh air. I think the US dollar would strengthen and the economy would rebound if either were elected simply because outsiders would take a greater interest in America. Under BUsh leadership the country is seen from the outside as a bit war-mongering and religious fanatical. There is much suspicion that the American political process was bought by big oil interests.
Despite everything that we think, Mike Huckabee could become the next president of the US. I have my reservations about anyone who believes in things that don't really exist, and its not just a matter of faith. It is a matter of association and inclusiveness. To disassociate oneself from key communities on the basis of religion is not supportable. It is possible to be religious, but for a leader to deny the role of science and to be insensitive to the demands for research in key medical areas is not comforting for me.
Even in my mythological world, the fisher king who wish to lead his community goes down to the stream and catches the salmon, which translated means that leadership is to be based on knowledge and the salmon is the food of the brain that leads us to process thought more clearly. Even ancient peoples realized the importance of eating omega 3, and the role of orators, but they were skilled at testing the leadership qualities of those who would lead. Though many people think myths are fine, nevertheless, people seek leadership qualities that bode well for making sound decisions. This does not rule out Huckabee, but it perhaps makes the challenges for him to unite the scientific and religious communities much greater.
McCain would make a much better president and would bring a tremendous amount of wisdom to the office. He has a grasp of the 'flow' of American politics in the sense of being able to direct the country out of the mess Bush has managed to create. He seems to think clearly on issues and has a way of getting at the hidden agendas.
America in the case of Barack Obama finally has an opportunity to elect an intelligent and thoughtful human being who may bring about corrections in science, employment, immigation, and energy policy that are badly needed. As a new American president, leadership of the country by Barack would be a very good. One wonders, however, whether he would become a target for those that like to conspire.
Who would be better Hilary or Barack? Hilary is a known leader and she has brilliance that has not been tapped. She has to develop strong skills and knows her mind. She would make the best leader of all the candidates, democratic or republican, and she has a husband who is a known first man. Can she keep him in line?
Why is it an issue whether Hilary or Barack are nominated. If Barack is nominated and wins the election, it would be strange that Hilary is not actively supporting him. Barack has the ability to unite the country in ways that Hilary can not. It's not just that he's black, but also that he challenges conventional wisdoms that need to be challenged.
Party Conventions
The democratic party convention is an opportunity for the future President Obama to be elected by democrats. He has the potential to change the very nature of America's image, while redirecting the country's political, international, and diplomatic performance for the benefit of all.
Obama would take a few years to get his footing, but would bring something wanted in American leadership and perhaps tip the balance towards greater self respect in the black community, which is what it needs.
If you don't see that George Bush has been a second rate and strangely biased president, you have not really studied the price of oil and what that is doing to your pocketbook. Exxon just made record profits of many billions while people in Africa starve and die of aids.