Friday 15 June 2012

Bubbles and more bubbles and more bubbles ... The economic bubble machine!

Financing bubbles are what give the stock market it's characteristic shape. That, along with nervous investors. What we should note is that the nature and shape of the banking structure has changed alongside the stock markets of today. It is the interaction between restructured markets that is causing volatility. The banking sector grew the house property market so fast it bust before it could pay for itself. The speed that bubblesz emerge is alarming. Not surprising that per capita income gets so badly skewed.

Yes!

We will continue to see many investment bubbles because banks are capable of financing them. Bubbles are overinvestment based on credit that is not warranted by the fundamentals of sufficient income to repay debt. Our low interest rates are indicative of bank restructuring that has got it's ass in a twist. By driving interest rates to zero over the long term, we have consigned savings to be driven by current income which is inequitous and dangerous to say the least.

As economists, we can see the need to resurrect the Hicks instability economic models of the post war period to see how the new parameters of economic boom and bust will govern modern day economies. Change the banking structure to manageable parameters of credit expansion and you might just put together economies that are more stable and save people a whole lot of hastle wallowing in zero interest boom and bust world of underemployment and debt.

We used to say interest rates guided investment in a non communist economy. Now we have no guide and have to ask whether many or most of our present investments will be misdirected into bubbles.

Well maybe prices don't guide ecoomic choice, but that would be a new orthodoxy and a very tenuous one at best.

We need sustainable lending not bubble lending!

Governments in uncertain times invest in new weapons as is the case of Russia under Putin. The opportunist sits watching for the weaknesses of our economy and disgruntled capitalists to declare the next spring revolution and it could very easily be further west.

http://beta.fool.com/catominor/2012/06/11/beware-productivity-bubble/5559/

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