The brutal cold of the Maunder Minimum and the Great Irish Frost « JoNova: Science, carbon, climate and tax

Dennis Avery's discussion in the article referenced below on my rereading does not make a whole lot of sense unless you delve deeper into solar machinations. He should be focusing on the disappearance of sun spots emerging in specific areas of the sun and not the totals of sunspots. There is a lag in the upswing of a cycle in the polarward branch of sun spots that lies below a downswing of equatorward branch. The measured count of sun spots is the sum of two parts. If one part is not forming, the lag of its ultimate effect is also not forming.

Avery is in effect warning us that a delay in the polar upswing of sunspots presages a smaller count in total sun spots, at least in the cycle 25. What happens in later cycles to produce a minimum cannot be assumed from such a small sample of data. In other words, it is still too early to be alarmist. The possibility of a cold age has risen, but the probability has remained somewhat the same as always.

Making predictions from such a small data base is alarmist and unnecessarily precient.

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the-brutal-cold-of-the-maunder-minimum-and-the-great-irish-frost/