Monday 6 December 2010

Will the Euro break up over the next two years.

This is not advice and only a loosely held opinion, BUT .....

Off the top of my head, I don't think there is much of a precedent despite what other economists say. It's likely that the rules for membership of the Euro will get tougher and fiscal policy will go the same way as monetary policy into coordinated realms like the US Fed. The Canadian dollar survived and I expect the Euro will survive and probably do very well thank you. The world needs the Euro. Europe needs the Euro. We all need the Euro. Who would want to see Europe's framework weaken other than a stinking thinking individual. This is not about opportunism born out of American corruption, but of decent hard working peoples trying to coordinate efforts over the longer time so as to reduce the chance of war.

Gresham's law would prevail. Experiments such as Alberta issuing it's own currency did not last very long and failed because good money drove out bad. Any country that tried to opt out of the Euro would find it's currency treated as bad and a black market of Euros or dollars would probably prevail. Germany has the staying power to keep the Euro strong and the energy policy to take Europe into a world economic leadership position. Britain may join the Euro within a decade, but the size of the Euro zone will not in my opinion diminish much if at all despite Greece and Ireland.

On the other hand the dollar as a source of world economic ills may get it's opportunity to move closer to parity with the Euro as fears of Euro break up increase.

Will not time reveal the lasting importance of friends and mutual respect? Be kind to those who think well of you and those you know and try to add positive elements to your world. Promote peace in your heart and sunshine in the minds of those around you by your own good works. Elevate the level of discussion by thinking less of the issues and more of how you can reduce the tension of stress that arises with honest disagreement. Relax by breathing more deeply and consciously.

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