Friday 29 October 2010

Why Do Good Economists Disagree?

It's very confusing that the social scientists occupy a world of knowledge that seems far less secure than the world of knowledge occupied by the physical scientists. The social sciences, such as economics, are not so different in reliability.

What people fail to understand is that a social science discovery has a sell-by and use-by date that comes much sooner than that of the physical sciences because the number of variables is much larger. Not only that, but the world of the social sciences is non linear and few economists can explain their thinking to audiences unskilled in non linear thought. The world thinks in a linear way despite the fact that almost everything in the social world happens in a non linear way. Dah! Most social science stuff is too difficult for the man in the street to understand consciously, but unconsciously there may be hope.

Similarly, a good social science non linear law lasts for a very short period, while a good physical science non linear law lasts almost endlessly. Look at chaos mathematics and ask how you convey the truths of that to the broad public. By the time a social science law is discovered the social world has gone, but by the time a physical law is discovered the world will be able to use it for a while.

Thus, when you read an economist's views you need to assess how long the views, even if correct, will last, probably not much longer than a good weather forecast made a week in advance of the weather. That weather forecasts are much better is quite evident, but this is probabilistic. They are more probably better, but not certainly better. The sell-by dates for an economist's views are fairly short, so one has to be very careful when using them. Some economist's views are stale the moment they are spoken, being based on other economist views, which are stale. Most economists views are stale and it is difficult to find fresh ones, but when you do, they are very very usable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303284604575582240138889912.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102900598.html?wpisrc=nl_natlalert

Will not time reveal the lasting importance of friends and mutual respect? Be kind to those who think well of you and those you know and try to add positive elements to your world. Promote peace in your heart and sunshine in the minds of those around you by your own good works. Elevate the level of discussion by thinking less of the issues and more of how you can reduce the tension of stress that arises with honest disagreement. Relax by breathing more deeply and consciously.

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