Thursday 14 October 2010

Politics and Election Promises

When you vote for someone and they win, the temptation is to think that because your person is the winner, the policy promises of that winner will be kept. That is a very naive assumption, and betrays a weak understanding of what politics is all about.

Even in the most favourable of circumstances the fact that your person is winner only increases the probability that movement will be made towards implementing the promised policy.

What people tend to forget is that an election is only one of the many obstacles in the process of implementing policy even if then promise is well intended. The problem with politics is that people make promises they can't keep. This happens for many reasons, but one should always ask the question of a politician in Bayesian terms. You will keep this promise under what conditions? What will you do if you for example your budget has to be trimmed?

The real problems can occur when politicians try to keep promises only to make matters worse, for example in giving free tuition only to have other matters under-financed. In the other words when you take into account the generality of political life consider your winner as only upping the chances of promises being fulfilled. Even when there is will, sadly, there may not be a way.

Example of UK Labour promises not being kept:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7628796/General-Election-2010-Labours-broken-manifesto-pledges.html

Broken savings plan promises in Canada:

http://marshallplan.ca/comments8.html

The shambles of African politics produce many broken election promises:

http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/article_6541.shtml

The extreme expectations of American politics following the Obama win:

http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=91286

Will ye no think kindly on those who would be your friends! May the sun shine with your thoughts, today, and happiness grow in your heart! May you allow yourself some peace of mind.

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