Sunday 29 August 2010

Waking up to the Challenges the Migration of People and Technology

People compare what happened during the Great Depression with what is happening today.  For a discussion of the causes of depression:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Depression

In my view, we have evolved economic systems based on the fear of another great depression.  We have central banking systems that give us more tools to avoid the scourges of rapid asset depreciation.  But, we are still vulnerable to a major depression arising out of excessive over investment during a period of enormous demographic change.  

That demographics have come to the rescue of the American economy many times arise from what used to be known as the safety value, a gap between what could be done migrating westward and the opportunities such migration afforded to a troubled eastern side of the continent.  

We still have the safety value, but in our modern world it is migration of technology in one direction and people in the other.  People will migrate to industrial economies and the technologies of industrial economies will migrate to places where there are loads of people.  Both migrations have the enormous potential to be destabilizing.

 http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fan16/English

On the one hand places receiving people will need to build homes, while on the other hand places receiving technologies will also need to build homes as more and more people are housed in cities.  Thus demographics and the housing markets of our modern economies will be severely impacted quite apart from changes in money supply, land prices and environmental conservation.

While we talk about energy prices, we see how money in the form of liquidity and the demographics in the per household management of that liquidity can have a major impact on whether or not we experience a major depression.

We know that population growth rates and land prices are critical forces for human discomfort quite apart from energy prices.  We are presently observing rapid development in all the key forces of discomfort.

  http://hubpages.com/hub/What-Bad-Financial-Policy-can-Bring-Weimer-Germany-in-the-1920s

We need to wonder and research how the modern world will cope with the impact of major shifts in the migration of people and technology.


Will ye no think kindly on those who would be your friends!  May the sun shine with your thoughts, today, and happiness grow in your heart! May you allow yourself some peace of mind.

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