Thinking Small About What's Very Big

Hot Fusion and the Economics of Large Scale and Tokamak / Tocamac Devices Based on Solar Energy Research



China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, the European Union, the United States and India are investing billions of SDRs, and potentially trillions in the future towards a large scale energy producing technology called Tokamak under the auspices of ITER, an international technology giant. The Tore Supra tokamak in France and the TRIAM-1M tokamak in Japan both produced long duration hot fusion energy. These are large units and produce temperatures of several million degrees Centigrade, very hot.

The target yield from energy going in to energy coming out is a power factor of 10, so that 100 MW going in would produce 1000 MW coming out.

So what are the economics of the tokamak? We know that the investment requirement is that of several monster large scale operations serving Europe, the Americas, and Asia. To say that the technology is capable of producing a new nation of technologies is probably an understatement. To also say that the implementation of the technology is not easily rushed, is also an understatement. Tokamac energy will take at least a generation to implement, and the people working on the tokamac projects are like modern day pyramid or cathedral builders.

Our future governments will be shaped by what these pyramid builders accomplish for instead of watching and worshiping the sun, they will be trying go build tiny suns here on earth. They will truly create the sun of light. We will organize nations of people and technologies around these gargantuan devices of the energy energy age.

The age of water is the age of energy is the age of the tokamac. Sounds almost religious until you realize that it is a form of sun worship and icon of the sun made here on earth to avoid using the sun that we have shining on us daily for free! Will our worship of our own sun blind us from properly using the real sun?





What seems to me that ITER is presently to a badly focused project that needs to be re-engineered somewhat to capitalize on what we are creating in parallel. The Tokamac has it's place, but we need to activate a more widespread field of operation that is more inclusive of the energy technologies we are developing in the here and now! Why do I say that? Tokamak's present focus has been on heat generation which drives heat based generators. Complementary to heat generation is chemical transformation to create chemicals. This is not to say that tokamak should produce chemicals, but it will have the capacity to do that!

Another thing tokamak creates is light. We should develop technologies that use the light directly and independently of technologies that use the heat, and those that create chemicals. From the light, we have also chemicals and heat.

Thus it seems to me that the scaling up of tokamak should be parallelled by our development of technologies that make use of the sun. These could then be complementary to large scale tokamac units, but in addition would be able scale down the technologies to produce economies of scale of mass production of small units that would be widely available when tokamac finally arrives for our great grand kids.

Getting the Economic Statistics into Perspective

The Little Understood Mathematics of Economic Growth







An economist who went by the name of Moore lived through the depression, but his economic and mathematics were never really applied or developed. They, nevertheless, contained an important element of business economics called the product cycle.

Product cycles for a firm tend to follow a pattern of slow growth, faster growth, and slow growth reflecting the life cycle of acceptance, penetration, and maturation of single product.

When economists look at the product cycle they can do so at various levels of aggregation from the individual firm with one product right up to all firms, many with a multitude of products at different stages of their life cycles.

Overall for the whole economy, it is important that economists really understand the maturity distribution of the product cycles of the firms operating in their economy. Yet, you would be surprised how little research into product cycles at the aggregate actually is undertaken. Why could this be? Are the mathematics so difficult?

The answer is an aversion by teachers of economics for situational or historical analysis based on statistical theory that looks at progress of individual technologies and products forming the product cycles of economies and firms. Yet, these product cycles are at the heart of understanding the mathematics of the Stock Market, consumption and investment of an economy. Instead, economics training has separated itself from the real world and moved into mathematical conjecturing that not only is not easy to understand, but ultimately misleading.





I come from a school of thought that if you want to know how something works, you get to know everything about that something. This means that you study it's history. You look at the world economy as made up of millions of products that each have a history and you develop a mathematics that is suited to understanding those histories individually and in total. You do a form of product historical accounting. Distinct patterns do emerge.

In some industries you find that there is very little competition. This is reflected in the distribution of firms and products historically. These industries are at a definable stage in their life cycles reflected in the products of these industries that are predominately at definable stages.

Understanding of industrial cycles and business cycles go hand in hand. It has been popular among some economists to claim that business cycles no longer exist or are not that important. Such claims are fanciful!

What emerges is conflicts between the approaches of individuals coming to the table from different ends. Some try to look at the total without understanding the composition. This can only go so far. Others look at individual cases without looking at the total. Both approaches have serious shortcomings, and yet people continue to behave as though the shortcomings do not exist.

To be able to predict economic growth and real growth rates a balanced approach coming from both ends of the table is required.

The Ancient Secret to Long Life

Yawning and Longetivity




This must be the craziest idea yet coming from this iPhone. It is that yawning has an ancient purpose as part of the long life ritual!

First, most of us have not even heard of the long life ritual! Yet, this ritual can promote long life. It is something like yoga, but originates in groups in ancient Britain.

Second, it began as a response to early ancestors giving speaches and expecting everyone to sit hours and hours on end listening intentively.

Third, when you have the urge to clear your head and awaken, you yawn. The ancient long life ritual began as some one listening to old Lax go on and on about the importance of having a personal relationship with the invisible universal constant.

A young child in the audience yawned. Soon everyone was yawning like mad. It was so infectuous that old Lax himself yawned, and then yawned again, and then yawned again.

Well that's when the long life ritual began. Everyone yawned, and yawned, then fell asleep.

Well, you know that sleep is the long life ritual, but you must always begin it with a yawn. The more you yawn the longer your life will be. That is because you activate those passages to your brain that get clogged up during the day. A good session of yawning clears the airways and gets those hormones going that promote a good sleep and a great feeling of contentment.

Ode to Stoic and Sufic Insight

The art of aiming high means being somewhat abstract!




In a world in which short term profit is the measure of success, one wonders whether it is sustainable. It's fashionable these days to realize that we owe more to what is far away than to what is close by. That is a good fashion trend.

Less fashionable is the notion that we owe more to what is infinitely far away. When the universe generated itself into large scale existence from a tiny existence, we tend to think of the matter as being somewhat far away. In actuality, the furthest things from us are those closest to us. We just fail to grasp the notions of dimension. The worst failing of human thought is that of assuming that a human being is somehow fundamentally different from an idea.

I find it impossible to explain to other human beings that they are moving internally in a extraordinarily fast as an outward exploding wave structure that defines them and all of existence. That they are abstract structures is something human beings fail to grasp.

That time is an exploding structure is something humans seem determined not to understand. That the reason physical laws derive from kinetic energy moving outward into space is something their localized minds cannot comprehend no matter how hard they try. I refer to this problem in Wuh Lax adventures as the problem of calibration. Without calibration the human mind is only partially there and misses the mark of what life is for. Uncalibrated brains cannot see the why of existence!

That all the laws of physics derive from outward explosive kinetic energy is beyond the grasp of human understanding. That the physics of strings and string theory in physics is in reality the music of an inflating reality going on within us now at this very moment is not easily fathomed by the brightest of human scientific or religious minds.

We are not only abstract structures but these structures that we call "us or me" are inflating at hypergeometric speeds. And, so it is that we have time.

What happens when you explode something? You get kinetic energy and inflation in scale of what you blow up. Such is time!

More wonderful than blowing something up is the imponderable realization that all our past continues to exist. All our futures also exist though in slightly different patterns that we experience in our sleep.

Our misunderstood reality is like a strike of lightning that once occuring releases so much kinetic energy that motion occurs almost simultaneously in two directions billions of occurences over.

Such is our time, that it reoccurs billions of occurences as our so pondered universe generates and regenerates itself billions of generations over and over again!

Don't seek perfection, however, for when you repeat, things may not quite be the same as before! No one knows!

Comparing our Potential with our Realization

Being Human Means Being Alone in Your Responsibilies and Sharing in Love







We know that an important part of out being is within the group. We play sports. We have meetings and gatherings. We join in and vote for governments and councils of the wise and wonderful. We engage ourselves in competition with others.

When we are in groups, we adopt a framework that is often less than our human potential. Our efforts and contributions get averaged out over larger and larger numbers. At worst, we lose that very important part of our nature, which is that of our being close to God.

Being close to God is when we are at our best and when we are most alone with respect to others. We often need to check whether our best measures up to the standards that God sets for us. It is one thing to lose oneself in the croud, but quite another to lose oneself whilst alone with the almighty creator and all of creation.

If we are not big in our own eyes, how can we expect God to see us as good in the same way that he sees our potential. When we compare our potential with our current capacity, we do it alone with God who is always there to tell us that we have more potential for good than what we know to be our present realization.

God is potential for good. If one does not experience good nor God, one is certainly less than our human potential for being human is to be increasingly alone and once completely alone we are truly with God our creator.

And, yet when we are with others in God's name, then we are at the crossing between people and Christ, who is the link between people and is often experienced in the form of shared love. When we meet in God's name or in the cause of love, Jesus claims that he as a force will be sitting there with us! God and his derived son in the form of Christ is then a shared experience, and we as humans are not alone from each other, but sit with the Son of God, a powerful force even though an abstract or unseen and frequently unsung being whom we as Christians know as Jesus the Christ, the ultimate expression and being of love in almost all cultures though appearing in many guises.

Being Christian is more than just being. It is a sharing of one's life with the supreme being through the ethereal connection provided in the form of Jesus Christ, the force of good when we are with God or the Son of God!

This is highly abstract until one is alone and tells oneself that one is alone in God's name. In reality we are just as abstract. We are ethereal to the physical universes. We are only a force because we have the gift of life which is truly the most abstract of forms, a form where we can observe the nature if our being!

Alternatively, one can meet with others in God's name and know that the Son of God will be amongst that group. The Son of God will be evident in the sharing of good between people, and for that sharing we use the word love as the noun and the verb. We love and we give love!

The gift of giving

Joys of Thanksgiving!




We almost all of us realize that we have been given gifts of love and caring.

This is no more apparent than at our personal family gatherings. You know that you are most sane when you know that you are happy to have love coming at you from all directions.

God gave you life and watches you fulfil it. Your family gives you company and happy memories along with enormous challenges and experiences. Your friends give you interesting ideas and provoke you to develop and explore the world given to you.




One's biggest concern is whether one can give something back in return. When you think on that you know that you are sane and that you have even more than you thought you had!

Who is the big bad wolf?

My well runs deeper still!



Often in seeking to reassure oneself we engage in castle building. It starts with the three little pigs. One had a house of straw, the other a shack of wood and the third a magnificent abode built of stone.

The straw and stick constructs were demolished by the wolf who blew very hard. So there was one piglet remaining inside a dwelling of stone. The wolf sat outside and thought to hisself! What am I going to do about that ugly monstrosity?

So the wolf called out to the piglet inside the cosy abode. "Heh pig, you got a problem with your little old house."

The frightened little critter looked out his window and wondered what the haggard looking drinking sodden ugly wolf was talking about.

"Look there!" the kind wolf said smerking sadly to hisself. "On the corner you have a crack in your castle and if you are not careful it will leak when the rains come. I'm forecasting heavy showers tonight"

"Really!" exclaimed the surprised piglet, now very worried. He opened the door to have a look and came outside where the wolf was studying his home, his mouth watering!

"I can fix it for you," said the wolf smiling kind to the last bite!

The moral of this tale is never to take your eye off your real problems because the wolf may want you to!

Blessed are the Peace Makers

Congratulations President Obama for winning the Nobel Peace Prize



You deserve it! You have done more for peace in your first year than many Presidents over several terms of office. What amazes me is that so many fellow Americans do not see what you have accomplished. That says it all!

What is a miracle?

God as the supreme observer!




We sometimes are prone to leave the observer outside of physics only to rediscover that the observer is the most important component of any physical process.

This is because the observer has an opportunity to transform what has no meaning into something glorious and full of meaning.

It is the observer's capacity to create meaning through observation and participation in a wondrous creation that makes life what it is, a miracle!

What is freedom?

Normal and Lognormal Distributions of Income and Wealth



A normal distribution of incomes has a bell shape. Real economic growth may be faster in such economies because people generally buy into the growth process. Competition in normal economies tends to be benign and leads to higher overall incomes without distortion of the overall incomes distribution. There are few normal economies, but we are under the illusion that they are the actual norm!

People have normal income distribution illusion not seeing that they are relatively worse off than they think they are.

A lognormal incomes distribution is not so bell shaped and tends to reflect economic growth arising from economies of scale, inflation, monopolization, restrictive practices, unfair competition, hoarding, black market activity, poor overall education, disasters, wars, goose stepping and comradery in societal organization, and so on!

Most people live in communities where the lognormal distribution of incomes prevails and they are not aware of how much of of skew in the distribution against them actually exists. This is relative incomes or relative wealth illusion. That is, not seeing the poor distribution when it is staring them in the face. They might even deny it's prevalence.

Some lognormal tendency arises out of competition if the distribution of supports for competition are already badly distributed. The log normal has in fact become normal because economists have their own illusions of not seeing bad or unfair competive conditions that are staring them in the face. They deny they are bad, that they exist or both!

Listen! You are in a bad income distribution situation if you think like a foot ball fan, goose step, or seek comrade. These are not normal behaviours but the consequence if your group fed illusions! Step outside of them and see yourself as an individual who is being skrewed by a biased mentality of the herd animal.

Raise your sights to that of an active liberated individual. Liberty, equality and fraternity are not normal. Fraternity is not comradery but respect for others! Equality is eqality of opportunity...thoroughly enforced and not the illusion of opportunity, and liberty is being a self sufficient individual and not a codependent member of a semi- feudal society!

Wither the Middle Class

Growth, Democracy and the Middle Class






Economic growth if not distributed according to the normal dustribution leads to a persistent social syndrome which is the decline of the middle class and the birth of the goose stepping and comradery classes.

Too fast nominal economic growth leads to a lognormal distribution of incomes and depoverishment of the middle class. In it's worse cases of extremely rapid nominal income growth the distribution of incomes is a very highly skewed lognormal distrution with almost every one in the base of low incomes and a very few in the top tail.

How does an economy remain normal instead of lognormal in it's distribution of incomes? Easy answer!! To create a normal income distribution one has to have a normal economic generator of incomes.

Thus one has to avoid several generators of the lognormal growth pattern in nominal incomes and wealth.

The main one is inflation in sectors of long term investment, the so called capital goods sectors such as housing, automobiles, land, plant and machinery, and even education and skilled individuals.

Second in importance is overall inflation, which generally can be contained by limiting money supply growth rates.

A third is monopolies. These tend to destroy a normal distribution of incomes. They are usually based on technical economies of scale, but can arise from patents, monosony or monopolizing protections of government, government organizations, unrestricted uncompetitive practices, acquisitions and mergers financed through credit.

Such distortions as listed above are inherited from and promote modern forms of feudelism based on lognormal distributions of the benefits of economic growth. They predispose societies towards instability and unnecessary or excessively rapid evolutionary economic changes that lead to boot stepping or comradery mentalities.

Rough Ride Ahead for World Economy

The Illusion of Recovery and Why Things are Much Worse Than They Seem




My reading of the present situation is largely pessimistic despite potential for strong sustained economic and business development growth outside of real estate markets.

Things seem bad, but they are really much worse than bad. The problem is that the downswing is not a correction but a consequence of doing nothing that really corrects a deep underlying problem. The underlying problem is that of overvalued assets, property, and debt. What caused the problem was excessive growth in the real estate Market unsupported by the growth in real incomes. Now real incomes have fallen further and further away from the real estate costs and imputed values which means an even greater unsupported overhang and the real possibility of major collapse leading to even further distancing of real incomes from supportable real estate values.

What policy makers have not done is link real incomes in America and Britain to supportable real estate values over the longer term. The forces of recession are increasing more than ever as money value illusion creates a larger and larger disjoint!

To resolve the issues it us important that policy makers create the bridge between real incomes and the real value of property that these real incomes must support.

Banks will need to lock in their losses rather than pretend they do not exist. Governments need to provide a bridge to banks in order to do this. If there is no lock in or no government support associated with a lock in, there will be a real reduction in growth, an explosion of debt, and an implosion of bank balance sheets.

I see no efforts to lock in consumers of real estate to property vales and real incomes. Instead banks are propping up real estate values artificially. This will not produce a long term solution because of stop go economic swings that will result over the longer term as economies swing in and out of financial crises several times over the next two decades associated with political and social forces, as governments fail to produce stable economic environments for growth!

My earlier blogs indicated what I think needs to be done to correct the imbalance between excessive real estate expansion and slow growth in real average personal incomes.