From the Back Room to the Woods

Computers are indeed evolving. There are now more computers in the wilderness than there used to be in the cities. From cool cellar to office, from office to desk, from desk to lap top, from lap top to hand. You get the idea of an evolution? From IBM to Hewlett Packard to Microsoft to Apple, and the trend continues. Or, do you not see the cycles?

The How and the Why of Ghosts

Do you need to take the idea of ghosts very seriously? Perhaps not, because they are not something that you can ever put you hands on, especially if you are a practical person. Are ghosts relevant in one's everyday life? Possibly not, but you really don't do not know.

Ghosts are very personal things and they are tagged to the past and places of the past. Since most people think that the past does not matter all that much, then ghosts won't matter that much, perhaps.

Our past realities define the how and the where of ghosts. The why of ghosts is more complex. Ghosts do exist, and they do come in many forms. They are a mental fact and reflect how our brain works and what our brain is capable off. If I say that time and space are the same thing a la general theory of Einstein then I might be forgiven if I say that in the future we will visit earth as ghosts. If you travel fast enough the earth will age while you remain young. As a young person you may arrive back on earth to find all your friends of a few moments earlier being presently just ghosts of the past. Yes ghosts really do exist, but we don't yet know the why of the ones we have experienced. We do know that they are possible and that our mind has many ghostlike qualities. We do know that everything we do or say continues on, otherwise Einstein would be wrong and the general theory of relativity would be false. We know that is not the case and ghosts are very real!

Memristors .. Are we ready for another electronics revolution?

Well it seems that nature is telling us that natural electronics still has a few surprises. One of these is a future component of electronic circuits that could make everything that we have seen so far seem like kids play .. welcome the memristor!

Wars are Obsolete and Peace is State of the Art

So many young men and women have gone to war at the urging of governments and organizations that were misled or deranged that we can say that wars are our greatest threat. We can see clearly that those that started war failed miserably. They inevitably lost more than they could have gained through other means. We can easily say that war is generated by losers.

It is also false to say that human nature predisposes people towards war. More accurate would be the assertion that war is a trap of nature coming from outside human desire. People are led into war unwillingly like being channeled down a fast moving river. Those caught in the current drag others in with them in a firm of overwelming madness that goes totally against what is in everyones best interests. Technology is the generator of war and an ignorance of how to manage technology safely is at the source of misuse that ends in war. Religion is a form of social technology that can be misused and the mismanagement of religion is at the root of many wars. Addictions are at the heart of many wars and represent technologies where people are incompetent users. At the heart of peace is the capacity to use technology towards beneficial goals. It is this, the direction of the use of technology, that is at the heart of peace.

Education on the proper use of technologies will create peace. Teach people how to use drugs effectively and how to eliminate addiction and one will create peace where drug wars once were.

Show people how to remove guns from temptations and one can eliminate the urge to use guns as a method of resolving differences.

We need to invest in peace making technology as much as we do in the instruments of war. This applies to religions as much to governments as to war lords and organized crime.

Downsizing as a Way to Reduce Waste

It is a paradox, but the prescription of many economic experts during hard times is to create more waste. This all to often is what economic growth is all about, and it is particularly nasty in the case of small economies.

My favourite economics professor at Cambridge was the growth theorist Lord Kaldor, who was also my examiner on many occasion. Lord Kaldor held that the strongest law in economics was fertility and he associated this with economies of scale and size of productive unit.

Most economists realize that a single enormous plant is now the most efficient way to produce, distribute and sell almost everything. If one can make something smaller as the iPhone has done with computers then one has actally enlarged the something. Accordingly, as the transistor and integrated circuits became smaller they actally became larger on economic terms.

The size of everything is an economic decision and everything in economics is affected by technology. My technology determinism thinking did not go down well at Cambridge University because the more traditional social determinism views of markets and economies held sway. However, our reality is that is you live in a small economy the size of packages of items such as shampoo will be larger because the seller and producer want you to buy more than you need. Think everytime you eat that you are made fatter by oversizing of delivery systems and you will soon see how technologies of scale impact on who you are, who you are with, what you do and don't do. Yes you are a technological not and economic solution!

My finger is not small enough

Ever notice that when you use a touch based instrument you are too large. You are so inefficient!

Understanding Comes More Certainly if You Understand Statistics

It is no accident that science uses statistical method a great deal. Statistics represents a tool box of generating functions that create series that approximate series that are evident in the real world. Our everyday life is a result of sequence in which one thing follows another. When a statistical generator is found that matches the sequences of everyday life then one can use the statistical generator as an approximation of the expected sequence of events. This is where the real power of statistical generation lives.

Most often stastical series come as a consequence of cause and probable effect or as effect and probable cause. Looking back within a sequence of events helps us to understand. Then using that understanding and observing results help us to understand more. Eventually, we may understand without any hitches, but we need to be mindful that even a machine can break down if hit hard enough with a monkey wrench, or a system an break if it ets overloaded with monkeying around or just plain overloaded by too many monkeys.

Rising Water Levels

The water beside Lake Huron looks spectacular without the breeze, like glass. Those of us who notice will see that the Lake's water level is visibly higher than last year. Huron is an interior lake, but it's history will reflect what is happening elsewhere. The amount of water that will make a lake as large as Huron rise a meter is enormous, but that is what seems to have happened on less than three years. We are not worried about rising water here so much but are we mistaken to be so calm?

Maybe the muons are falling on our landscape and seeding low cloud formations. We see more rain these days here in Huron woods region. That is better than the lack of rain experienced where they normally see more rain, the maritime regions of British Columbia. What about the forest fires of Austrailia and BC!

Generally, water levels globally could be rising despite the building up of ice in Antarctica. The Artic ice is melting and we assume this to be a consequence of higher levels of co2. Might this also be due to sun spot activity peeking in the latest upward swing.

The earth is bombarded continuously by large energy particles and we don't have much insight as to the effects and cycles!

The Hard and the Easy: Why the West Needs to Think About the Direction of Economic Growth and Choose the More Difficult Path.

Unemployed technology and technologists not the banks are at the route of our economic ills. Overemployment in easy tecnologies of construction have been the wrong direction of growth by many economies. Short term profits and capital gains are not the way to run an economic system. There needs to be leadership towards the development of new industries within hard technologies rather than the easy peasy products that is driving western economies into penury. Growth by inflation in housing sectors and rralestate speculation is no way to manage an economy. Low interst rates indicate failure to choose the right direction of economic growth. Governments appear to be addicted to corruption of the politicians who have become specators of inflation rather than working to increase employment in new more difficult industry. Where is the leadership in spending taxes raised fr gambling, drugs, housing inflation, co2 pollution of or environment? Where is the incentive to keep people employed in the more difficult agricultural practices that are environmentally friendly? Who is directing the directions of economic change into the more difficult industrial or agricultural paths that we need to explore?

Is the New Gun Registry System a Pipedream?

This new UN gun registry covers all weapons and comprises a massive database system that can be used by law enforcement officers worldwide. Every weapon has a finger print. The new database stores that finger print before the weapon is sold to a member of the public or delivered to the military. All weapons manufacturers in all member countries of the UN must provide the information to the worldwide database before the weapon is sold.

This new system to be announced in time by the UN's new crime prevention unit has the capability of tracking down every new and existing registered weapon to its victim if the projectile or bullet is retrieved. Even in a wartime scenario the innocent victim of killing by a soldier can be traced to the soldier's weapon. The system will save lives if only because the criminal will know that use of a weapon will be traceable by an international police or UN agency.

The new database to be implemented requires that every existing owner of a weapon be registered. All weapons of soldier will be registered under the new system. This information is to be kept in a central database for access worldwide by police forces and military law investigators worldwide over the Internet. Any weapon that does not match its registered finger print will be confiscated and destroyed.

All weapons worldwide will be registered whether for military or civilian ownership. The new system will require of member countries of the UN to provide timely real time information. An country that does not provide such information is to be boycotted.

Don't believe everything that you read.

The Mathematics of Panic and the Mexican Swine Flu Pandemic

No one yet knows for sure, but the evidence is building that the Mexican flu pandemic is real and that it has had a three week gestation period beginning in earnest possibly during for the first week of April 2009. It may have spread out through people travelling away from the breeding wastes of several large swine farms at La Gloria near Mexico City. That is only an hypothesis. The big question is that, given present deaths in Mexico now stand at over 150, how long will it take before similar numbers appear in other communities across the globe. In other words, how long before you or I no matter where we live can expect to see the virus in our community. And, then how fast will the numbers of serious cases climb in Mexico as a potential pandemic gathers speed.

I have to say that the pandemic seems more than potential and that is why the potential for panic is as great as the potential for pandemic.

A rough calculation based on a three weeks gestation period for an area that has been saturated with the flu virus mutating and evolving suggests that not all those that have the swine flu virus will have the virulent strain. In fact, many case of the virus already reported around the world will have strains that have not yet evolved into a killer strain. They may never evolve into a killer strain and indeed may provide a means of protecting people from the killer strain or strains when these eventually arrive.

My very rough calculations of percentages for what they are worth would preliminarily suggest a 5 percent mortality rate out of those that have actually caught the killer strain and get seriously sick. This means that the figure for the total number catching the swine flu virus with all the other less dangerous strains could be a much smaller proportion, say less than 1 percent. This is just a wild speculation for setting out the arguments that a panic response may be more serious than the spread of the killer varus itself, at least initially, and if we are very lucky we may get immune to the killer strain by catching the non killer strain. Being or getting sick from the swine flu does not mean you will die. We do not know what the proportions are or will be. Some people may be already partially protected from less dangerous forms. We do not know what will protect from the killer forms.

As regards alarm, one should realize that those that will catch swine flu may be very large indeed, again I must emphasize may be, since mathematically we have no way yet of telling people more than that. This will lead to panic, and panic is morel Ikey than pandemic of the killer strain. As I read it, a pandemic of the swine flu virus is not the same as a pandemic of the killer strain the swine flu virus. Thus, you will probably survive the pandemic if you are reading this article, however you should be aware than you may still panic, and the panic may be more dangerous than the part of the pandemic of the swine flu virus that is not the killer strain. If you can understand that then you have the gist of my comments.

It is possibly the case that once people in your community have contracted the swine flu virus, you, yourself, will catch the virus in about three weeks even if you try very hard to avoid it. Be aware that many people may have to have the non-killer strain before it has evolved into a killer strain. Averaging everything out, the average person is safe, but there is a good chance lots of people will get very seriously ill around you.

Just keep your cool and do what you think will maximize your chances of surviving the worst. Get food and drink together for the long haul, get anti-viral cleansers, get loads of tissues and bags to dispose these,. Read as much as you can about how to protect your family and your community. Above all, do not panic. Survive by using your wits, and do unto your neighbour as you would they do unto you.

The New Stereotypes and Why They are Damaging

I see the creation of new stereotypes as a social process to give human beings comfort that they are addressing the ills of their world. The real problem is that the new stereos, many of them associated with bankers and banking, do nothing to help our situation other than appease our inclinations towards negative attitudes.

In essence, the main players in the unfolding of the financial crisis were innocent of a knowledge of wrong doing. Most were people being pragmatic within their perceptions of what the rules of the economic games being played out. They did not realize that the senior supervisory managers of the game were ignorant of the ultimate effects of the market game processes or had their heads in the sand. Our stereotype is, however, different in that we have cast them, all banking industry people, as willing participants in games of deception. That these stereotypes do not really apply to the vast majority of people in the financial world is too often forgotten in the rhetoric of politicians and housewives alike.

We have been through many histories of destructive stereotyping that has led to massive amounts of injustice to innocent parties. What we all have to presently endure is that the approaches of economic analysis that are presently in place worldwide are not sufficient to the task of understanding economic processes. The whole science of economics has to improve beyond its own stereotypes.

It is no longer sufficient to use the mathematics of economics to solve economic problems. There needs to be much more empirical and information gathering in economic analysis of forms that take into account the real complexities of economic and social structures. We are far down the ladder of solutions and need to climb into realism. Our shortcuts of analysis are damaging our people and communities.

The Continuing World Economic Crisis as Mistaken Identity

The problem with understanding economic problems is that there are many ways to analyse an economic situation. The leaders of the G20 have resolved that a multi-pronged approach aiming to end the liquidity crunch while amending the rules under which banks operate should do the trick. Do their efforts represent a real solution or are we seeing the playing out of another drama of ignorance about economic processes?

A feature of the G20 proposal is that it partly addresses the demands of Gordon Brown for stimulus while partly addressing the demands of European leaders for reformation of the banking system. It is wonderful rhetoric, but does the rhetoric contain the solution, or might one ask in all sincerity whether there is at this point a solution. In my view, this rather depends on your point of view and how you see the economic processes playing out over time relative to what you consider your ideal.

Its obvious that the main target of community leaders should be to minimize inflation while maximizing real growth in new directions such as to resolve other crises that humanity faces. The measures proposed in the G20 statement of intent will go some of the way towards resolving the different crises, but what will play out will be huge differences in emphasis in different countries because of their respective competitive situations and whether they are the initiators of the crisis or the unfortunate recipients.

One has to ask the question why the credit crunch. If one gets the right answers then it is possible that solutions may be found. However, if one asks the wrong questions or looks at the economic processes incorrectly, one can easily foresee a continuation of 'issues' rather than their resolution. In my view the wrong people are reviewing the financial processes and probably getting it wrong. This is not because they are not brilliant in the field of economics or finance as presently defined, but because the whole science of most economic analysis is built on mistaken identity based on stereotypes that no longer apply. Partly, we are all to blame because we believe or have faith in mathematical analysis as the end of the story rather than thorough examination of the details through time.

Mathematically, we can examine the economic problem from a macro or micro economic perspective. In conventional macro economics, it is not obvious that there was rampant and destructive inflation. What was overlooked was the disjoint between short term financing and long term need. The gap between the two was bridged by a false and failing macro economic approach. What was needed was a measure of processes of inflation that are socially divisive.

This was definitely overlooked by the IMF whose role it was to have such an indicator. Do you think they will advise on the correct measure of inflation the second time round. I don't, and that is a real problem for the world! Their macro economics approach is presently insufficient to the task. They need to get a better measure of inflation and act accordingly.

Another aspect of the G20 communication is that there needs to be changes in the rules of banking. This we would all agree. The problems we have identified are associated with leveraging, hedging, borrowing short and lending long (in all environments of immediate, short and long term financial markets), debt burden creation by not limiting loans to weaker segments of borrowing, arm chair banking at it very worse, disregard for prudent loan management. All these are, however, to misidentify the real problems, which I believe will be allowed to continue unless they are understood for what they are.

Economists are prone to forget the very close connections between stock market activity and money market activity. When both markets are structured in such ways as to produce instability from their very nature, this does not augur well for the economic system as a whole. I believe that the structural problems of the financial system have not been identified or are being ignored while the focus is on the effects of bad structure not the elements of bad structure that need to be address.

Yes, my dears, mis-identification is the order of the day, and habit persistence of bad habits will govern the greater mess me will be forced to endure.

The Case For Christ - A Review of Lee Strobel's Book

Lee Strobel is a well known and highly respected reporter, who has written many books about why Christians should continue to believe in Jesus Christ as their saviour and as authentic.

In my view, his case for Christ book has to rank among the best on the subject of the authenticity of Christ. His book outlines the failings of much serious research work over two recent decades to get a clearer picture of Christ beyond what was known thirty years after his death and carefully vested for inclusion in the New Testament over the century afterward.

The reader will find that Strobel's book is extremely well written and its conclusion very clear, namely that Jesus Christ lived and rose from the dead in a way that we would today regard as supernatural. The Christian story is of a miracle, a series of supernatural events that cannot be explained away by recent research. On the contrary, much of current work on the historicity of Christ that seeks to present an alternative view to that presented in the early days of Christianity fails on almost every count.

One is given such wonderfully presented information by Strobel as to conclude that it is worth every one's time to begin reading the Bible, if they have in the past failed to do so, because what Jesus says and does may indeed be supernatural and unique in the history of mankind.

Read Strobel's book and judge for yourself. I think he makes mincemeat of many weaker and falser claims by those wishing to destroy Christian faith.

Why the Present World Financial Crisis is an Opportunity

President Obama and world leaders came through yesterday and presented a wonderful opportunity for the young people to develop a new world order with a soundly based future that properly takes into account the numerous failings of excessive or rampant market growth.

My own research suggests that companies, and the human beings that drive them forward, are by-and-large opportunistic or paranoiac copy cats. Life is a competitive race in which people are likely to neglect the needs of others and they charge forwards to higher and higher levels of pleasure and satisfaction. Fear, as well as, fervour and lust are at the base of aggressive behaviour.

By change from competition towards competitive cooperation or cooperative competition, we can move closer towards more ideal forms of market and social development that recognizes our basic desires, but at the same time curbs our worst appetites. That is what communities and community communications could be designed to achieve. It would be much better for religions and companies to recognize that they cannot be overall winners. Organizations need to come to terms with living in a cooperative but still competitive environment. When governments recognize this, organizations can recognize this and eventually the people within the organizations can recognize this. It means that we need to have a human bill of rights that all governments, all organizations and all human being can be held to task on.

Once we have reached the goal of cooperative competition between human beings, we can expand our bills of rights to include all living creatures. There is room enough for every living creature once we get cooperation as a norm between human beings.

The Evolving World Economy

A consequence of the mistakes made in the financial sectors of New York and London would seem to me to be that their time of dominion is rapidly entering a new phase. If Britain and America engage in meaningful reforms of the financial structures, there might be hope of their lasting well into the future, however, the force of old habits and prior commitments to financing long term goals with short term money does not auger well for their futures.

The winners in our financial crisis should be those that can think into the longer term, not the thieves of our futures. There has to be a way for governments to redirect thinking towards long term views that build in low risk approaches to financing. It would better to have slower growth that is well founded in innovation and good judgment than to have inflationary growth that rushes into the future faster and faster as it heads towards a poor or tragic outcome.

What is Natural?

At a time when we see and hear so much about Charles Darwin and his wonderful life researching and discovering the origin of species, it is quite natural that one should ask what is natural. Well, we could say that what is in the past is natural. How far does that take us? Most would probably think that it does not take us very far. Can one say that what is in the future is natural? As one goes through this process of considering what is natural, one gets closer to the idea that there are some things that go well beyond the natural. Is it fair to add all these new things that we discover in the future to our category of natural. I have my doubts.

My inclination is to reject this notion of natural and think of the world as being supernatural. The category of supernatural for me at least includes what is natural and then adds to it. I don't think all the past was natural. One has only to ask what came before the past and one has no answer. What existed before the big bang and why was there a big bang? Its not satisfactory to me to say that everything after the big bang was/is/will be natural. My view is that all this stuff we see around us includes the natural universe plus a very large supernatural universe. Its not that I have any proof, but I am not going to wait forever thinking that this is all there is, or ever was. That would seem to me to be rather silly.

The Crash Georges

My pet peeve is that two Heads of State named George crash landed their economies, when they could have landed them much more softly and the world would not have to change so much. George Bush crashed his America and George Brown his Britain.

A consequence of George Brown's failure to produce a soft landing will in my view at this moment in time (opinions change) be the loss of the UK Pound Sterling as an independent currency. As the pound weakens because the UK financial is inhibited from crisis creation a benign consequence could be for Britain to join the Euro system.

Had Britain been part of the Euro system, there might have been greater sensitivity to the forms of inflation that are socially divisive, namely the inflation of costs of operating and owning a family residence. As it now stands, George is unrepentant in his mistaken view that his lack of sufficient understanding of evolutionary economics was not the source of the crash landing of the British economy.

Is the G20 Challenge an impossibility? Not yet, but pretty close!

Later this week the G20 meets in London, England under extraordinary security. Heads of State will discuss options for our future based on their assessment of the processes of economics that generated the present difficulties.

On the top of the list must be the future role of the IMF, and one can be forgiven after what has happened whether the IMF has been neglecting its mandate, which is to ensure that the world economy grows and inflation is kept in check. The idea may have arisen in many minds as to whether it is a failing of the staff of the IMF or its political bosses. Its one thing for staff to comment on what countries should do, but quite another to buffet the pressures of governments pushing their own agenda a views of what makes good world order.

The IMF Slept While Housing Inflation Raged in the US and UK.

At fault is the price index used by the IMF to assess whether inflation exists. A new index needs to be worked out that assesses contributions of inflation in long term investment forces, such as housing, land rental, residence rental and property. This is a minimum and security of pensions and of pensioners is at stake.

The main economic idea to be supported is that inflation is socially divisive and has in the past contributed to the deterioration of the social fabric of the period immediately before the second great war.

The role of the IMF, its primary role, is to ensure that the world does not deteriorate into stagflation that brings about international conflict in trade and investment, especially if such deterioration and conflict can be avoided by good economic policy.

Stability in the Housing and Building Industry

Its very strange that Gordon Brown should be mouthing off about how upset he and the people around him are about how profligate the banks have been. Going back in time, one can see that the approach of allowing the big five in the UK to lend to the housing market resulted in an over investment in that market relative to what could be sustained. Its fairly easy to see that liberalization of the banking system in this one aspect was controversial from the start as it was based on the wrong assumption that banks in the UK could lend long and borrow long. That is not the case. Even building societies have problems borrowing long.

The competitive reaction analysis done by Knickerbocker in the 1960's, by Gary Hufbauer in the 1960's and by numerous economists like myself in the 1970's, was suggestive enough that American banks would bring with them a competitive reaction relationship from the US and the very financial technologies suitable for America but unsuitable for the UK. The US banking system is vastly different from that of the UK and the rules that US banks like to follow are competitive, dishonest and legalistic rather that cooperative and honest as in the UK. In essence, the British banks increased in number as Building Societies became banks. The ethics of British bank fell prey to the lack of ethics in American banking. The US disease has been seen around the world and suggests that we need to move to remove the sickness of doing what is legal and replace it with doing what is good for everyone.

At the very least, the OECD technology wing should study the competitive situation in banking systems of the members of the OECD and come up with proposals for reform.

Stability in World Banking and My Recommendations of Starting Steps to Achieve it

It is fair to say that people are holding too much debt. Much of existing debt needs to be written off, but it needs to be done within a cooperative frameworks rather than competitive frameworks. Under competition, banks will gobble each other up as they dishonestly portray their financial situations. Camouflage and obfuscation is the 'order of war' between banks. People will be thrown out of houses to make balance sheets look good!!

1. The OECD should study the technologies of the banking systems and make recommendations based on high technology considerations.

2. The OECD should also study the nature of banking sector risk and make recommendations regarding what forms of hedge funds would be permitted based on risks of the forms we have seen and based on simulations of potential industrial growth permutations.

3. The IMF should reexamine the role of the SDR as a commercial medium of exchange and store of value. The US dollar as a stable unit of account is exaggerated. The Chinese, Brazilians and Russians are quite right in asking for a basket of currencies, and in my view it should be the SDR.

3. Oil and energy taken from the ground (gas, petrol, wood, and other contaminate) should be priced in SDRs. The IMF should regulate these pricess to ensure the environment targets, what ever they may be, are met. A proportion of the revenues should go to the IMF to help finance solar energy and clean energy production in small economies. Energy from the sun should be priced in the currencies of countries of source.

4. A better approach for housing finance is that certain debts be forgiven over the long period on a sliding basis. What should happen, in my humble view is that all housing debt after 2004 be locked in at fixed rate of two percent and the 60 year maturity assigned. Each year thereafter the maturity of the loan should be adjusted forward by one year. After fifteen years these loans should be reviewed and differentiated between manageable and unmanageable accounts. Those that cannot afford their properties should sell them and move to other locations.

5. All new loans for housing should have a fixed interest rate of greater than 2 percent. All borrowers should be allowed a single multiple of 3.5 times current annual income, and married couples 5 times joint incomes. Capacity to repay should be the basic rule.

Wuh Lax Rules

1. Don't smoke... ever!
2. Drink only in moderation, and keep as wheat free as possible, for health and nourishment.
3. Be as honest as you can be in all things.
4. Treat others as you would treat yourself.
5. Exercise as often as you can.
6. Eat only when hungry and eat for health and nourishment.
7. Talk when spoken to. but talk in moderation and listen attentively to others.
8. Remember that people are varied and enjoy them as you would good books.
9. Rest often and be tranquil frequently.
10. Avoid profanity.
11. Cultivate friends assiduously.
12. Try working with those who oppose you as your preferred option.
13. Find out new things by figuring out the universe.
14. Create novelty and be inventive in your attitudes and attempts to master new skills.
15. Do voluntarily give up.