No one yet knows for sure, but the evidence is building that the Mexican flu pandemic is real and that it has had a three week gestation period beginning in earnest possibly during for the first week of April 2009. It may have spread out through people travelling away from the breeding wastes of several large swine farms at La Gloria near Mexico City. That is only an hypothesis. The big question is that, given present deaths in Mexico now stand at over 150, how long will it take before similar numbers appear in other communities across the globe. In other words, how long before you or I no matter where we live can expect to see the virus in our community. And, then how fast will the numbers of serious cases climb in Mexico as a potential pandemic gathers speed.
I have to say that the pandemic seems more than potential and that is why the potential for panic is as great as the potential for pandemic.
A rough calculation based on a three weeks gestation period for an area that has been saturated with the flu virus mutating and evolving suggests that not all those that have the swine flu virus will have the virulent strain. In fact, many case of the virus already reported around the world will have strains that have not yet evolved into a killer strain. They may never evolve into a killer strain and indeed may provide a means of protecting people from the killer strain or strains when these eventually arrive.
My very rough calculations of percentages for what they are worth would preliminarily suggest a 5 percent mortality rate out of those that have actually caught the killer strain and get seriously sick. This means that the figure for the total number catching the swine flu virus with all the other less dangerous strains could be a much smaller proportion, say less than 1 percent. This is just a wild speculation for setting out the arguments that a panic response may be more serious than the spread of the killer varus itself, at least initially, and if we are very lucky we may get immune to the killer strain by catching the non killer strain. Being or getting sick from the swine flu does not mean you will die. We do not know what the proportions are or will be. Some people may be already partially protected from less dangerous forms. We do not know what will protect from the killer forms.
As regards alarm, one should realize that those that will catch swine flu may be very large indeed, again I must emphasize may be, since mathematically we have no way yet of telling people more than that. This will lead to panic, and panic is morel Ikey than pandemic of the killer strain. As I read it, a pandemic of the swine flu virus is not the same as a pandemic of the killer strain the swine flu virus. Thus, you will probably survive the pandemic if you are reading this article, however you should be aware than you may still panic, and the panic may be more dangerous than the part of the pandemic of the swine flu virus that is not the killer strain. If you can understand that then you have the gist of my comments.
It is possibly the case that once people in your community have contracted the swine flu virus, you, yourself, will catch the virus in about three weeks even if you try very hard to avoid it. Be aware that many people may have to have the non-killer strain before it has evolved into a killer strain. Averaging everything out, the average person is safe, but there is a good chance lots of people will get very seriously ill around you.
Just keep your cool and do what you think will maximize your chances of surviving the worst. Get food and drink together for the long haul, get anti-viral cleansers, get loads of tissues and bags to dispose these,. Read as much as you can about how to protect your family and your community. Above all, do not panic. Survive by using your wits, and do unto your neighbour as you would they do unto you.
