Trying to get rational discussion of the options open is foiled by interest groups each pushing it's own agenda without a conductor to be referee. We can be sure that availability prices are destructive because of their not including external costs or costs not affecting immediate operation. We also know that muddling through with high actual costs Is an option only to the very rich and will sink the small operations. Costs need to be seen with a long term horizon in mind and based on pushing forward weights on prices that should be higher than current availability prices because longer term consequences of using a resource are accounted for.
This discussion reminds me of the two ways to run an economy or more generally the children's story of the ant who knew winter was coming. It is also why Joseph was so successful an adviser with the pharaohs because he knew about sunspots. Maggie Thatcher knew the problem when she introduced the corset. It is also why we now have a crisis in world housing demand and relatedly a monetary and banking crisis. Its why leveraging is very risky. At issue is whether an economy can be allowed to grow at maximum pace without provision for bad times or severe swings in demand. In short, the present way to run an economy is no way at all and leads to complete disaster. Said otherwise, it's not a time to let engineers no matter how skillful run an economy. It's why I say Adam Smith was wrong and why the hog cycle persists in George Brown's economic logic.
If one builds windmills without supporting infrastructure to offset for wind down time one is courting disaster. One could assume that windmills are a no go, or one could figure that windmill introduction should be paced with technology that makes the periods of lack of wind acceptable and take advantage of them. Excuse me for a cybernetic, auto regulator, or thermostat moment. Why not employ an economic thermostat in engineering terms that oversee the moral and not just the subset.
We see everything more clearly in shipping. Wind energy was discontinued because of it's inability to provide cost effective steady energy for ships needing wind motion all the time. This is where the ship owner has an economic unit that needs special attention. In Norbert Wiener terms, without an automatic flow regulator, the shipping business based on wind alone could not survive against oil driven ships and it can certainly not survive when the price of oil is cheap. For some time however, we know that shipping based on wind was effective relative to what had gone before.
How do we correct for the failings of wind to generate a steady flow of energy. The answer is, as you say, not to build a business or economy around wind alone and while oil or alternatives to the miracle fuel is cheap to forget about wind altogether.
This all assumes that the economy is telling you the correct price for oil, but if oil's true price/cost is infinitely higher than it's availability price then in a world of only wind and oil you should go back to wind. But, as you say, there is more than wind available, so these alternatives may be better than wind.
The trick is to know the true cost of each resource, but the market or availability price is not the true cost. The true cost comes in the long term and if you have a short term horizon, you may make always bad decisions viz-a-viz the long term.
The solution is for wind to produce oil equivalent energy, but at the present this is not included in the energy packages offered which are too short term.
If all wind energy were devoted to producing hydrogen and a reserve stock of hydrogen were maintained, the economy regulator and central banker for energy supply could smooth out the flow of energy for using units. The pharaoh would be right in choosing Joseph as his advisor. The ant and grass hopper would have fuel for winter!
Woohs stream at http://woohs.blogspot.com taps into many streams of thought and action. Nearby yoga at http://nearyoga.blogspot.com taps into human body movement using yoga techniques and Kundalini meditation. The Wuh Lax site http://wuhlax.blogspot.com focuses on sources and research behind the Wuh Lax series of books. At Togwells Publishing we focus on people's notions of pilgrimage of body, mind, and soul, http://togwells.blogspot.com. Whatever your beliefs, there is no end to motion, just evolution and unrelenting change, seen or unseen. Energy is motion both in reality and calculation. Take time to rest even though all inside you is always moving. Your massive relative pause gives opportunity for other smaller streams to catch up. Take time to meditate so that you can see with your mind what lies within and beyond.
Reader wrote:
> I agree! (with the wind watch article)
>
> If you install wind turbines for say 20% of national power demand, there will be times when there will be no wind. This can coincide with heavy snowfall as it did with us over our last Christmas period.
> So what do we do when demand is high and the supply reduced due to no wind power? Simple,
> we have to install alternative back-up generation of the same capacity, at outrageous cost. So, if wind-power has an 80% up-time, the utilisation of the back-up plant will only be 20%.
> It is complete economic nonsense in my view to regard wind-power as a strategic option.
>
> Tidal and other forms of hydropower makes more sense to me to reduce carbon emission.
>
> Regards, reader
>
>
> Wooh blogged:
>
>> Or is it?
>>
>> http://www.wind-watch.org/news/2010/04/08/wind-power-is-a-complete-disaster/
>>
>>
>> Woohs stream at http://woohs.blogspot.com taps into many streams of thought and action. Nearby yoga at http://nearyoga.blogspot.com taps into human body movement using yoga techniques and Kundalini meditation. The Wuh Lax site http://wuhlax.blogspot.com focuses on sources and research behind the Wuh Lax series of books. At Togwells Publishing we focus on people's notions of pilgrimage of body, mind, and soul, http://togwells.blogspot.com. Whatever your beliefs, there is no end to motion, just evolution and unrelenting change, seen or unseen. Energy is motion both in reality and calculation. Take time to rest even though all inside you is always moving. Your massive relative pause gives opportunity for other smaller streams to catch up. Take time to meditate so that you can see with your mind what lies within and beyond.
