Why Russia may actually choose to wage war?
You must realize that to a significant extent man must assert oneself in a special way to make regularly a choice in a specific way and, as your son's story shows, one should choose by self preparing oneself in advance so that it is easier to make the right decision.
Most people forget that a choice requires preparation, but that is too simple. All choices arise through self control that has to be independently exercised and free of the influence of toxins such as alcohol, pain, inability to concentrate, lack of focus.
People require truth and lots of good information to make good decisions. Some are so afraid of uncertainties that they will choose a bad certainty even though it is a bad or second best decision, such as doing what their dubious leaders say or thinking what their leaders want them to think, all because they do not know how to deal appropriately with uncertainty.
The situation in the Ukraine frightens many Russians because it increases uncertainty which in turn pushes people towards choosing a certain outcome even when it is bad or worse for them. This is why their leaders and the ordinary people say we don't understand how they see things. They are not reasoning through their situation the way we would expect them to. Banging their heads against a brick wall would not help them make a good decision, because the mentality mode is a trade of between what is certain and what is uncertain. Certainty always wins when the mind is in toxic shock. Collectively, Russia is experiencing a firm of toxic shock and may take a course of action that we would see as totally disastrous.
Because it initially brings a certain outcome of victory and because the uncertainty of right action is gravely discounted, Russia thus might actually see their way invade their neighbour Ukraine even though it will be disastrous for Russia to undertake such a action given the high technology of modern communications and warfare. This would not be the first time a community chose violence even though it was irrational. It's not a matter that Russia might not succeed in beating Ukraine into submission, but that the world would not have an easy way to assess how to react to Russian extremism. It would feed the argument for those in the West to respond again with certainties rather than deal appropriately with risk and the uncertainty of letting Russia have the benefit of doubt.
At university, I used to have to brainwash myself initially to get into the right mentality for concentration. Once done, it came easier and easier, but the discipline never came automatically.
I find that one's most difficult decision is that of starting something that one knows requires considerable effort to complete, like reading a long book. Understanding one's own moods and foibles allows one to get moving. The worst situation happens when a 'good' habit is imposed because then one does not develop the mental muscles needed to do good spontaneously.
In Russia, we have a dire situation. There are too many toxins, such as drink and lack of an enquiring mind, impeding sound decision making. People are told what to do and think, so they don't build up the mental muscles to make good decisions on their own. This means that they are vulnerable to unsavoury influence. Good leaders in response to this may overreact because they do not trust their people to good decisions or they think their people are too easily led by dangerous foreign ideas and influences.
Arthur
More at: http://www.woohs.blogspot.com
In response to:
Thanks Arthur for this full text of the (Putin) speech. It is clear that we have a
situation that must now be solved by consultation and good will, backed by
strength and not by further armed intervention, that so far, happily has not
become a major shooting war. We see here two points of view that must be
reconciled within the context of intentional law. This would be a great step
forward. If armed conflicts should result both parties will suffer, for both
would not have done their best to bring the world into a state of advanced
maturity. It must be hoped that the Ukraine itself will reach that advanced
state of maturity as well; with the help of the UN and all nations of good
will.. Kind regards, Rene
