Congratulations on a life of service. I am proud of you, and so are
we all.
Sketch with lots of help from Bert's photo of an at your celebration
on Monday.
Arthur
Scratches to Sketches
Wednesday, 30 June 2010
Anne's Retirement Party
Tuesday, 1 June 2010
The Internet is Flat
Boring! Boring! Boring! The death nells of the Internet are ringing
louder and louder. We are no longer addicted to the Internet because
our tastes are evolving and we have been there and done that, and it's
getting increasingly boring. At least with a paper on your hand you
can get a feel of something. With the Internet you are getting blah!
Blah! Blah!
louder and louder. We are no longer addicted to the Internet because
our tastes are evolving and we have been there and done that, and it's
getting increasingly boring. At least with a paper on your hand you
can get a feel of something. With the Internet you are getting blah!
Blah! Blah!
If newspapers think they can go digital with innovative Ipads and
electronic desks and Turner or Murdoch want to do a turn with the
Internet then the newspapers we are reading have to go because it is
getting in the way. Along with the paper will go the tactile feel.
Or will it?
Well, perhaps what you feel about the Internet will be what you feel.
The next step beyond 3D screens has to excite the sense of touch!
Montreal Family of Lakes - Stage Seven
very happy time and really established the directions of our future
lives! Dad was in his element and got meaning from his work! Bob
showed everyone how brilliant he was! John painted the trim on the
house his way and gave it novel and distinctive character, a white
glorious tribute to individualism and agility! We all enjoyed meeting
Edith Guard from Devon, EXPO 1967 and getting our passports stampted.
Driving licences all round! Mom enjoyed the company of the UCW and
read ever more intensely! I met Beatle music and road over swaying
Jacques Cartier Bridge on the back of Ross Stuart's scooter. I
learned how to bake and paint at altitude!
Wow what a wonderful time we had!
RT
Monday, 31 May 2010
The Montreal Family - Stage Six
Feeling more comfortable with this now.
Personalities are starting to appear!
Need theme to develop to place them in context of larger aspect.
RT
Thursday, 27 May 2010
Cosmic Explosion - I Quit Here
look out I am looking within! What we regard as the very large is
the very small that our eyes enable us to see in a convoluted manner.
As we go out of our world scale into the very large, we enter the very
small world, our inner world. To travel outward, we must travel
inward. What we see is an illusion that can only be reached by
transforming our very nature into an entity that is extremely small
like a ray of light, but in so doing we lose our very essense as an
observer of the world around us. Our observation of reality and the
impressions on our mind is our reality!
RT
Cosmic Explosion - Stage 6
show a sequence of increased impression. Each layer adds to
understanding and is cummulative as aspects of lower layers are hidden
from view. Thus one builds a more realistic impression of reality
until the view is clear and exact, more specific and the result if
hard work and direction!
RT
Cosmic Explosion - Stage 5
perhaps that was a Freudian slip!
In any event the naked eye cannot see something so large! Makes one
think what else we are blind to!
RT
Cosmic Explosion - Stage 3
This is the start of an impression of a photograph of a super nova
exploding. The super explosion is too small for the naked eye to see
without the Huxtable Satellite and its monster lens, yet too large for
the human mind to comprehend, it is a very strange creature indeed.
It is so large that the earth cannot even be rendered as a pixel in
it's scale, the earth being almost the size of nothing. Despite all
that there us a strong organization of matter and forces which are
truly awesome hense the attempt to get a personal impression
RT
Saturday, 15 May 2010
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Differences of Behaviour Between American and British Banks
I was startled to hear the responses of American bankers to the
questions asked at the Bear Stearns Hearings. In Britain, there was
once an unwritten rule that the figures published on third Wednesdays
of the month were representative of the banks balance sheets during
the whole month. The object of publication was to show compliance
with the spirit of the law. It was a surprise that American banks
operating in the UK did not enter inti thus spirit and as a result
cane begging fir finance on the make up days causing all sorts of
market upheaval.
questions asked at the Bear Stearns Hearings. In Britain, there was
once an unwritten rule that the figures published on third Wednesdays
of the month were representative of the banks balance sheets during
the whole month. The object of publication was to show compliance
with the spirit of the law. It was a surprise that American banks
operating in the UK did not enter inti thus spirit and as a result
cane begging fir finance on the make up days causing all sorts of
market upheaval.
Now the hearings are revealing to British bankers that in the USA it
is the norm not to adhere to any spirit of the law. It is accepted as
the norm to break the spirit of financial cooperation. It is not
surprising that the paria/diease of the world banking systems comes
from America.
There will be continuing turmoil in financial markets so long as US
banks misbehave in what other communities see as criminal behaviour,
and certainly not in the spirit of the law.
This necessitates a publication of the banks' balance sheets on a
daily basis!
Monday, 10 May 2010
How to Improve the Stability of World Financial Markets
If you were watching the TV broadcast of the US Congressional Hearings
for certain US banks, and had the experience of large bank balance
sheet management that I have had, you would have to conclude that
there is one way to improve the transparency of the banking systems
worldwide and and the same time help prevent a future crisis.
for certain US banks, and had the experience of large bank balance
sheet management that I have had, you would have to conclude that
there is one way to improve the transparency of the banking systems
worldwide and and the same time help prevent a future crisis.
The answer is simply that of updating the reporting of banks to their
central authorities so that it can begin to meet the challenges of the
information age.
At the very least this is to enforce with huge penalties for none
compliance a daily business reporting system of the banks balance
sheets. At Barclays in 1978 the whole balance sheet was managed on a
daily basis. It is simple! In an information age it is a no brainer!
Second, is the enforcement of liquidity and capitalization
requirements on a daily basis. This is also very easy to achieve.
Third is the regulation of maturity mismatch on a daily basis!
Fourth iis the raising of precautionary deposit balances with central
authorities.
Fifth is the limitation of borrowed funds for acquisitions. Control
of the financing of acquisitions to profit earnings would reduce the
merger mania.
Sixth is the international taxation of salaries of executives based on
moving five year averages for the industry and geometric profit
performance measures.
Seventh is measures of deviation from best practice published daily.
As always, the issues are not confined to any single view of markets
and a further list of measures will be forthcoming!
Thursday, 6 May 2010
Friday, 19 March 2010
Error Creation
happens frequently we may refer to the problem as a system mis-
specification. The system needs to be recast so that it no longer
generates an error. Inherent, however in most systems are errors that
we tolerate because their ramifications are slight, or because
correcting the system may be over costly with respect to tolerating
the errors.
Systems can evolve and when they evolve to include undesirable
qualities that are very costly we do have to make an economic decision
as to whether the new errors are worth fixing. Such decisions can be
both economical and political, and require debate as well as
evaluation and much research.
Working within a world of errors
We all know that the world is imperfect in many ways. We all know the works us made up of systems and that for the most part these systems are in balance. We know that natural systems are approximated very well by the mathematics of chaos, which means that they produce averages that can be approximated by mathematical statistics. We also know that all systems while tending to their averages occasionally thrown up values that are extremes. It is the extremes of values for systems that tell us that the world is made up of many seemingly ordered systems, but that we cannot know all the systems in operation and that it us this lack of knowledge that surprises us when we see errors and judge these to be failures in the system. These errors are evidence that there are other systems in play that we do not yet understand and have excluded so as to have a simpler view of the world.
Some may refer to these errors as evidence of the inherent randomness of all systems.
My position is that what makes human life and awareness is the presence of errors. Our human brain uses errors to learn and without awareness of errors we would be exinct long ago! We see and our senses work because of errors in the systems around us. To exclude errors would be to reduce the information our brain needs to understand the world more completely. Errors put us on new paths of revalation and discovery. Being able discern errors allows us to understand and correct them and to do that we explore systems at deeper levels to know more about them and how the work and can fail.
Some may refer to these errors as evidence of the inherent randomness of all systems.
My position is that what makes human life and awareness is the presence of errors. Our human brain uses errors to learn and without awareness of errors we would be exinct long ago! We see and our senses work because of errors in the systems around us. To exclude errors would be to reduce the information our brain needs to understand the world more completely. Errors put us on new paths of revalation and discovery. Being able discern errors allows us to understand and correct them and to do that we explore systems at deeper levels to know more about them and how the work and can fail.
Hello again and again
Read previous blog page first, or just continue to be confused!
What might exist is an indeterminabke outcome or a multitude of possible outcomes and no single front runner! Perhaps, it would be easier just to assume that because you exist the outcome is determinate and that all the systems of the whatever are complete and fully functional. Yep! You may be just in for the ride of your life time, but that is obvious anyway.
Maybe, because the systems are all complete and fully functional they are actually a single unbelievably large system of a whole that is complete and fully functional. Maybe, this is not the only ride of a life time that you will have!
It seems to me that one life would make the whole system incomplete, and it would mean that it is not a system at all. No it need not be finite, but it could be an infinite system within other infinite systems. Wow! That increases the chance of another life on earth infinitely to the power of infinite, which means it is certain!
Oh! Hello again, and again!
World without end!
In mathematics, we can have a system of equations to represent the
balance of forces. In mathematical statistics, we can have a
generating function to generate the values of probabilities for
whatever can generate values. We can even add different generating
functions to arrive at unbelievably complex generations of statistical
values.
Each mathematical generating function represents a balance with a
single equation or multiple equations. The equations may represent a
system. Systems of equations may exist within other systems of
equations, so it all gets very complicated very soon.
If we could ever assume that all can be represented mathematically, we
would have an enormous collection of equations. My question is
whether that collection can ever be complete.
If you assume that it can be complete then you may assume that a
balance of forces may exist in some way, or that a statistically
determinable outcome may actually be inherent within the mathematical
representations. This requires an enormous amount of faith in what
can be eventually found if one is ever to set out to find it.
Confused a little?
This is a complicated question for to know one might bc expected to
experience? However, we have the notion that more exists than we can
ever know. If the sum total of what exists is observed that is one
set of notions, but we have more out there than what is aware that it
exists. Thus, conscious existence is only a part of what exists. The
other parts do not know they exist. To experience even is only
partial, for experience is had without knowing. We experience the
world without knowing the world. We may come to know more and more
about the world, but we do not know the world completely, nor is it
likely we will ever know the world completely.
Knowing is akin to being smart. We will never be smart enough to know
everything. How smart is the smartest being in all the universes? Do
we make a mistake in assuming that being is smart enough to know
everything there is to know? For such a being to know all, it would
need to be from one end to the other of all that is knowable and it
would need to exist within a world that is by definition fully knowable.
When you assume such a being you assume that all exists in a way that
is knowable. All needs only to be not all for the supreme being to
not know all!
So what are you assuming? Is it that all is knowable?
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Sideview of Edgeworthy - Stage 4
What is in stage 5?
One always makes mistakes that need to be corrected!
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
Side View of Edgeworthy - stage 3
Colour and indefinition fairly good.
Light areas need attention as do 3d aspects.
Saturday, 13 March 2010
The Garden
Are you racing to keep up with it's everspeading vines?
A Side View of Edgeworthy - Stage Two
There needs to be still places and movement places.
Light is stationary. In two ways!
Light does not move contrary to conventional wisdom.
We move relative to sun light and to non-material light!
We are blowing apart as ethereal forms along with matter!
Tuesday, 9 March 2010
A Side View of Edgeworthy - Stage Two
sense of the jumble of colours and shapes. The brain is putting
together an image closer to the reality of the real world even though
more chaotic on the canvas!
A Side View of Edgeworthy - Stage One
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Laws of attraction are a part of the laws of association
Extending Impressionistic Art
The observation that you are associated with other entities because of the colours with which you decorate yourself is a profound one. Gone is the value of the idea that the mind works in straight lines. The artist can use such branding by
association to paint a picture of you that is very different from the real picture painted. When the viewer has a host of associative predispositions, the viewer will use these to paint the picture wanted by the artist. Messages are implanted within art that those associated with cues will reacte to emotionally and then physically.
This phenomenon artists have used and by association their work has been valued by collectors! Who you associate an artist with really does matter for the popularity of the artist. Even your mother warned you about how you paint the picture if yourself that others see. Put a ring in your ear and you are associated with a host of feelings and memories that others have. They will value you based on these associations. Human intelligence makes use of false associations to attract and to fend away. Associations are used by writers to encourage or discourage feelings and actions.
The forces of association are related to the real physical forces of location and magnetism. By placing yourself near a magnet, you place yourself under the influence of an invisible magnetic force. By placing yourself within a church you place yourself within another force field which can be as powerful, but which operates at hidden levels just as magnetism operates at hidden levels.
It is very important to realize how associative forces operate to influence other forces. They can change history, can move mountains, and can destroy communities. The hidden forces of association are immensely powerful, yet are not generally included among the forces of physics. We can appreciate them through art!
The observation that you are associated with other entities because of the colours with which you decorate yourself is a profound one. Gone is the value of the idea that the mind works in straight lines. The artist can use such branding by
association to paint a picture of you that is very different from the real picture painted. When the viewer has a host of associative predispositions, the viewer will use these to paint the picture wanted by the artist. Messages are implanted within art that those associated with cues will reacte to emotionally and then physically.
This phenomenon artists have used and by association their work has been valued by collectors! Who you associate an artist with really does matter for the popularity of the artist. Even your mother warned you about how you paint the picture if yourself that others see. Put a ring in your ear and you are associated with a host of feelings and memories that others have. They will value you based on these associations. Human intelligence makes use of false associations to attract and to fend away. Associations are used by writers to encourage or discourage feelings and actions.
The forces of association are related to the real physical forces of location and magnetism. By placing yourself near a magnet, you place yourself under the influence of an invisible magnetic force. By placing yourself within a church you place yourself within another force field which can be as powerful, but which operates at hidden levels just as magnetism operates at hidden levels.
It is very important to realize how associative forces operate to influence other forces. They can change history, can move mountains, and can destroy communities. The hidden forces of association are immensely powerful, yet are not generally included among the forces of physics. We can appreciate them through art!
The Impression World
See Me - The Phenomenon of Branding or Association
This is the observation that people don't really see you! They use heuristics and associate you with others, other people, other groups, and entities that they use to try to understand you because of your associations.
You are rarely interpreted correctly as a person. By associating you with something or some group and associating that group with other associations the real you is hidden among false of partial impressions. Finding the real you is made all the more difficult and elusive.
This is the observation that people don't really see you! They use heuristics and associate you with others, other people, other groups, and entities that they use to try to understand you because of your associations.
You are rarely interpreted correctly as a person. By associating you with something or some group and associating that group with other associations the real you is hidden among false of partial impressions. Finding the real you is made all the more difficult and elusive.
Thursday, 11 February 2010
Harbour - Stage 3b
There is more brown than one would expect now.
That befits a period when wood was used before brick!
Local brick is yellow and from local clays.
The Harbour - Prep for Stage 3
instead and a few tall masters!
Tuesday, 9 February 2010
Monday, 8 February 2010
Sunday, 7 February 2010
Kincardine Harbour - Done as first impression
and will call it on this one. Now to start another for the image that
I intended!
Thursday, 4 February 2010
Wither's Saw Mill - part way through
Stage Two is partly done. Will now work with the greens and blues.
Wednesday, 3 February 2010
Withers Saw Mill Penetangore - preparation for Stage 2
People appearing out in the open and in the shade!
Wither's Mill of Penetangore - Stage one
light which surprise surprise is going to come from the right or West
which means that this is a morning image. Withers is surveying his
wood stock that had been brought in from up river. The damming of the
flow permits easy movement of big logs. His saw mill is a frame
construction put up rather hurriedly though fairly robust.
Looking over the scene and reclining on the summer shade will be
people. And there will be Chippewas as well! It is August 1848 and
most of the mill construct put up hurriedly is in place.
Wither's Saw Mill - First Scratches
Monday, 25 January 2010
Coffee moments
Our lives are our own portraiture!
Remember that the choice you make each moment is whether you can add beauty to your world. Our challenge is all the more difficult because we are but a vague smudge in the resulting colour schemes of our many dimensions. In all we do, we create a partial but real representation of our own portrait.
Remember that the choice you make each moment is whether you can add beauty to your world. Our challenge is all the more difficult because we are but a vague smudge in the resulting colour schemes of our many dimensions. In all we do, we create a partial but real representation of our own portrait.
Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Concerned Artists
How to save the planet earth - primer!
Dec 22, 2009 5:38 PM
Stephen W Hawking and others have said that there is little hope for the continuation of life on earth given present trends which move life towards premature death and the planet into a cycle of poisonous gases and fumes!
My first try at a conservationist 'Save the Planet Theme' emphasizing the green artist thinking about the picture he wants to paint of the future earth. It is based on the innocence of a Norman Rockwell character. This is only a preliminary sketch!
He is puzzled as the systems are already there staring him in the face as he looks out the window to the sea and sees the surplus energy of the sun, the wind, and the waves. He is puzzled because these are the only sources of energy that earthly things can use if they are not to destroy the earth by altering a balance of chemicals and gases that has evolved over millions of years. We are closer to earth's destruction than we would admit because of our greed. In such a case, we are closer to an unprecedented period of violence than we can imagine. To many, the negative outlook would be a step towards a widespread war that would be the only solution.
In such a future era the love of God would not exist, most certainly would be dead to life on earth!
Everything that flows from inside the earth, it's gas, methane, petroleum, coal, volcanoes, and derivatives of methane that silently doom the earth to become again a dead planet like Murcury and Venus.
He sees how close we are to the tipping point and knows that the earth like all things will die a premature death without the love of caring artists in the use of what comes to us from the sun and the stars, the light, the sprites and solar winds.
We must make solar energy catchers such as sails, to drive our needs fir motion. By using the sun, we have no need to release further pollutants such as natural gas from the history of earth when it did not support life.
How to save the planet earth - primer!
Stephen W Hawking and others have said that there is little hope for the continuation of life on earth given present trends which move life towards premature death and the planet into a cycle of poisonous gases and fumes!
My first try at a conservationist 'Save the Planet Theme' emphasizing the green artist thinking about the picture he wants to paint of the future earth. It is based on the innocence of a Norman Rockwell character. This is only a preliminary sketch!
He is puzzled as the systems are already there staring him in the face as he looks out the window to the sea and sees the surplus energy of the sun, the wind, and the waves. He is puzzled because these are the only sources of energy that earthly things can use if they are not to destroy the earth by altering a balance of chemicals and gases that has evolved over millions of years. We are closer to earth's destruction than we would admit because of our greed. In such a case, we are closer to an unprecedented period of violence than we can imagine. To many, the negative outlook would be a step towards a widespread war that would be the only solution.
In such a future era the love of God would not exist, most certainly would be dead to life on earth!
Everything that flows from inside the earth, it's gas, methane, petroleum, coal, volcanoes, and derivatives of methane that silently doom the earth to become again a dead planet like Murcury and Venus.
He sees how close we are to the tipping point and knows that the earth like all things will die a premature death without the love of caring artists in the use of what comes to us from the sun and the stars, the light, the sprites and solar winds.
We must make solar energy catchers such as sails, to drive our needs fir motion. By using the sun, we have no need to release further pollutants such as natural gas from the history of earth when it did not support life.
My first try at a conservationist 'Save the Planet Theme' emphasizing the green artist thinking about the picture he wants to paint of the future earth. It is based on the innocence of a Norman Rockwell character. This is only a preliminary sketch!
He is puzzled as the systems are already there staring him in the face as he looks out the window to the sea and sees the surplus energy of the sun, the wind, and the waves. He is puzzled because these are the only sources of energy that earthly things can use if they are not to destroy the earth by altering a balance of chemicals and gases that has evolved over millions of years. We are closer to earth's destruction than we would admit because of our greed. In such a case, we are closer to an unprecedented period of violence than we can imagine. To many, the negative outlook would be a step towards a widespread war that would be the only solution.
In such a future era the love of God would not exist, most certainly would be dead to life on earth!
Everything that flows from inside the earth, it's gas, methane, petroleum, coal, volcanoes, and derivatives of methane that silently doom the earth to become again a dead planet like Murcury and Venus.
He sees how close we are to the tipping point and knows that the earth like all things will die a premature death without the love of caring artists in the use of what comes to us from the sun and the stars, the light, the sprites and solar winds.
We must make solar energy catchers such as sails, to drive our needs fir motion. By using the sun, we have no need to release further pollutants such as natural gas from the history of earth when it did not support life.
Thursday, 17 December 2009
Sales tax revision for Ontario
Why it's simpler to quote the final cost to the buyer which includes all taxes!
For those of us who have been used to more advanced tax systems such as VAT, it comes as a big shock when we are in a backward tax country like Canada.
Ontario has just decided that instead of two taxes on top of the quoted prices seen by the consumer, the province will move to a simpler single tax amount that does not betray the split.
Wow, that must have had the professors of economics at U of T up all night! This no brainer for most Europeans used to advanced levels of social cooperation does not deminish the effort Ontario authorities have put on to get their sales tax onto a non-controversial plane.
Sure people may dislike the fact there are provincial and federal sales taxes, but the math need not be after what the buyer makes a decision on. Get the final number out there so that the consumer can make a sensible decision based on simple calculations like the net amounting one's pocket after a purchase.
It would be better had Ontario moved to a full progressive VAT tax system now that the systems are built into machinery and documentation worldwide and it's not such a burden for the seller!
Getting Ontario onto the modern age is a real struggle.
Saturday, 12 December 2009
A Novel Method for Keeping Time
Decimal time
Have you heard of the idea to take time into decimals ending a three thousand year old tradition?
The idea floated would consist of a ten sip clock instead of twenty four hours. Instead of working eight hours people would work only three sips.
There would be a working day starting at three sips then a cup of coffee at four sips and lunch at five sips. At six sips, one would end one's working day. With four sips remaining and at least two further sips for sleep, one could fashion quite an easy life.
In a week, a labourer would put in 15 sips and about sixty sips in a month.
For the seasons, there would be about 900 sips per season and about 3600 per annum.
A few fanatics have proposed the word bell instead of sip. There was quite a debate whether ten bells seemed better than ten sips. The bell proposers were mainly from rural parts where the idea of ringing bells was very popular. The drinkers preferred sips and their larger numbers won the day.
Have you heard of the idea to take time into decimals ending a three thousand year old tradition?
The idea floated would consist of a ten sip clock instead of twenty four hours. Instead of working eight hours people would work only three sips.
There would be a working day starting at three sips then a cup of coffee at four sips and lunch at five sips. At six sips, one would end one's working day. With four sips remaining and at least two further sips for sleep, one could fashion quite an easy life.
In a week, a labourer would put in 15 sips and about sixty sips in a month.
For the seasons, there would be about 900 sips per season and about 3600 per annum.
A few fanatics have proposed the word bell instead of sip. There was quite a debate whether ten bells seemed better than ten sips. The bell proposers were mainly from rural parts where the idea of ringing bells was very popular. The drinkers preferred sips and their larger numbers won the day.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Bigger Problems Ahead for Liberalized Financial Sectors
Maturity Mismatch and Why the Multi-billion SDR IMF Measures For The World Economy Miss the Mark by a Wide Margin
When the likes of Ron Ball and Tom Everett of Barclays innovated the inter-bank market in the 1960s, big banks had the sound internal oversight of a single individual Treasurer, and respected their international departments that contained a reliable economics unit or group of economists familiar with competitive processes of the real world and not just some abstract theories of higher mathematics or obtuse economics logic based on political leanings and ignoring historical analysis. These people kept banks away from gross mismatches of liquidity or extreme policies that the competitive reaction response between banks produces. Banks live in a highly competitive international economy for financial instruments and arrangements. It is only to easy to forget, the close links of the IMF and the World Bank that now exist through operations of central banks to this world of risky finance. The definitions of growth and of inflation have been lost or hidden within so much abstraction as to become meaningless for practical purposes. It has become fashionable to try to finance one's way out of difficulties without addressing the glaring weaknesses in competitive environment and gross abuses of the legal and moral frameworks that societies rely on to live in peace! It is not a question of freedom, but one of balance, of art in management and of appropriately using the skills contained in more sound social arrangements. This is not a problem only of money but also of system and structure and history!
Over time, however, the financing of the world economy and the liquidity of commercial banking have moved increasingly in concert with each other. The point is that the IMF and World Bank have moved so far into cooperation with private banking that they promoted each other's goals and formed tighter and tighter relationships originating from the major financial centers and central banking communities.
What was hidden from view was the goal of the IMF to keep inflation rates down and provide the basis for growth because of the history of hyper-inflations and lack of trust between major political and financial groups. Behind this distrust was competition between the UK and Germany. Jealousy of the British Colonial system produced a rivalry that enveloped the world in conflict and disarray despite the League of Nations. The IMF economists do not understand very well the importance of technology and Schumpeterian economics and the dynamics of growth that arise with innovation and science.
When maturity mismatch between the debt of Germany and the rest of the world resulted in the collapse of the Austrian banks and then spread throughout the financial world of the time, it was determined that the solution lay in forming central banks to provide liquidity in periods of liquidity mismatch, especially for the agricultural sectors.
In the 1970s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of the energy sectors founded on oil. In the 1980s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of the property sectors in the US, especially Texas. In the 1990s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of Asian economies advancing their trade to the US but unable to continuue with borrowing in the dollar. Mismatches occurred for
Brasil, Mexico, Argentina, and resulted in extreme social hardships in these economies as well as in Asia.
That there should be a maturity mismatch in the US housing market that feeds into the financial of the world economy begins with a targeting of the wrong inflation indices by the US banking authorities, who instead of long term inflation targeted short term inflation. As property values representing long term inflation demands increased the authorities turned a blind eye.
In the distant past, the trust and ethical ethos of management staff were sufficient to ensure that enormous mismatches of liquidity did not and could not occur. Come to the year 2010 and banks have evolved and inspections by reps of equity holders of their operations have become weaker because of financial liberalizations innovated under the umbrella of the IMF.
The VP or DMG that proposes the impossible is not laughed out of court, but taken seriously. Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes are weeping.
Unfortunately, the IMF Advisory departments and the Central Bankers are probably missing the practical experience needed and no authoritative persons understand the enormous structural risks of mismatched maturities and everything derived from the funds mismatched. Even worse, if the mismatch is structural and no-one watches out for it, almost certainly another enormous crash could occur. This has already happened recently. Reoccurence should come as no surprise. We have now to watch for the bounce or as they say, the Hicksian or Harrodian growth dynamics. I might also throw Lord Kaldor onto the fray!
My fear is a return of extreme right wing politics that could occur with social disintegration. Are we to watch the collapse of the IMF and UN as we did the BIS and League of Nations? The IMF does not realize it's impotency for such structural issues arising as they do from competitive situations it has itself created, though unwittingly!
I really do expect that as a result of financial market liberalization, and weak liquidity understandings at the IMF and World Banks, we have now systemic mismatches that will produce the continuous and inevitable eventual collapses of the international financial system until the mismatch is permanently and systemically at the core of it's structure, removed. Something to do with grains of sand piling up.
The OECD us the entity to address these issues of destructive competition between banks that will widen the mismatches. I do not think the IMF or World Bank have the inclination nor wherewithall!!
I do not see the IMF people and the type of staff they employ understanding what the problem is nor the central bankers. I can therefore predict the stupendous risky period ahead with the very real possibility of other major crashes and series of crashes in the international financial markets. These could destroy London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore as key financial centers as trust, the key ingredient of business disappears. I expect that it will necessitate the rebuilding of new structures systemically matched in maturities. So, don't be surprised when that happens!
Look for yourself and see if as a banker or historical economist you do not agree!
When the likes of Ron Ball and Tom Everett of Barclays innovated the inter-bank market in the 1960s, big banks had the sound internal oversight of a single individual Treasurer, and respected their international departments that contained a reliable economics unit or group of economists familiar with competitive processes of the real world and not just some abstract theories of higher mathematics or obtuse economics logic based on political leanings and ignoring historical analysis. These people kept banks away from gross mismatches of liquidity or extreme policies that the competitive reaction response between banks produces. Banks live in a highly competitive international economy for financial instruments and arrangements. It is only to easy to forget, the close links of the IMF and the World Bank that now exist through operations of central banks to this world of risky finance. The definitions of growth and of inflation have been lost or hidden within so much abstraction as to become meaningless for practical purposes. It has become fashionable to try to finance one's way out of difficulties without addressing the glaring weaknesses in competitive environment and gross abuses of the legal and moral frameworks that societies rely on to live in peace! It is not a question of freedom, but one of balance, of art in management and of appropriately using the skills contained in more sound social arrangements. This is not a problem only of money but also of system and structure and history!
Over time, however, the financing of the world economy and the liquidity of commercial banking have moved increasingly in concert with each other. The point is that the IMF and World Bank have moved so far into cooperation with private banking that they promoted each other's goals and formed tighter and tighter relationships originating from the major financial centers and central banking communities.
What was hidden from view was the goal of the IMF to keep inflation rates down and provide the basis for growth because of the history of hyper-inflations and lack of trust between major political and financial groups. Behind this distrust was competition between the UK and Germany. Jealousy of the British Colonial system produced a rivalry that enveloped the world in conflict and disarray despite the League of Nations. The IMF economists do not understand very well the importance of technology and Schumpeterian economics and the dynamics of growth that arise with innovation and science.
When maturity mismatch between the debt of Germany and the rest of the world resulted in the collapse of the Austrian banks and then spread throughout the financial world of the time, it was determined that the solution lay in forming central banks to provide liquidity in periods of liquidity mismatch, especially for the agricultural sectors.
In the 1970s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of the energy sectors founded on oil. In the 1980s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of the property sectors in the US, especially Texas. In the 1990s this approach led to the financing of the mismatch of Asian economies advancing their trade to the US but unable to continuue with borrowing in the dollar. Mismatches occurred for
Brasil, Mexico, Argentina, and resulted in extreme social hardships in these economies as well as in Asia.
That there should be a maturity mismatch in the US housing market that feeds into the financial of the world economy begins with a targeting of the wrong inflation indices by the US banking authorities, who instead of long term inflation targeted short term inflation. As property values representing long term inflation demands increased the authorities turned a blind eye.
In the distant past, the trust and ethical ethos of management staff were sufficient to ensure that enormous mismatches of liquidity did not and could not occur. Come to the year 2010 and banks have evolved and inspections by reps of equity holders of their operations have become weaker because of financial liberalizations innovated under the umbrella of the IMF.
The VP or DMG that proposes the impossible is not laughed out of court, but taken seriously. Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes are weeping.
Unfortunately, the IMF Advisory departments and the Central Bankers are probably missing the practical experience needed and no authoritative persons understand the enormous structural risks of mismatched maturities and everything derived from the funds mismatched. Even worse, if the mismatch is structural and no-one watches out for it, almost certainly another enormous crash could occur. This has already happened recently. Reoccurence should come as no surprise. We have now to watch for the bounce or as they say, the Hicksian or Harrodian growth dynamics. I might also throw Lord Kaldor onto the fray!
My fear is a return of extreme right wing politics that could occur with social disintegration. Are we to watch the collapse of the IMF and UN as we did the BIS and League of Nations? The IMF does not realize it's impotency for such structural issues arising as they do from competitive situations it has itself created, though unwittingly!
I really do expect that as a result of financial market liberalization, and weak liquidity understandings at the IMF and World Banks, we have now systemic mismatches that will produce the continuous and inevitable eventual collapses of the international financial system until the mismatch is permanently and systemically at the core of it's structure, removed. Something to do with grains of sand piling up.
The OECD us the entity to address these issues of destructive competition between banks that will widen the mismatches. I do not think the IMF or World Bank have the inclination nor wherewithall!!
I do not see the IMF people and the type of staff they employ understanding what the problem is nor the central bankers. I can therefore predict the stupendous risky period ahead with the very real possibility of other major crashes and series of crashes in the international financial markets. These could destroy London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore as key financial centers as trust, the key ingredient of business disappears. I expect that it will necessitate the rebuilding of new structures systemically matched in maturities. So, don't be surprised when that happens!
Look for yourself and see if as a banker or historical economist you do not agree!
Friday, 6 November 2009
Bias of Inflation in Valueless Assets
Unrepentent Debt Brokers and Bankers?
The fear of deflation from an asset value freefall so scared central bankers that revaluation of assets artificially through money supply creation was a jerk reaction.
The only problem now is that the jerk owns the assets and will always have a jerk reaction!
The fear of deflation from an asset value freefall so scared central bankers that revaluation of assets artificially through money supply creation was a jerk reaction.
The only problem now is that the jerk owns the assets and will always have a jerk reaction!
The Swine Flu's Second Wave is a Real Bummer
Mutating H1N1 Flu Virus
It seems that H1N1 is not so benign! Vigilance is necessary as the virus progresses through the world population taking many people unawares and before vacination. Death toll is already not looking good, and people are much much too complacent about the risks!
People who have had the flu have no way of telling what kind they have had, but at the very least need to avoid pneumonia which attacks silently and too often is destructive and deadly!
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Decision Taking Abilities
The Role of Thinking in Decisions
Now that the ability to make decisions is regarded as unmeasured in IQ tests, one might ask what the ability comprises.
In it's simplest form the making of a decision based on what we call thought as compared with instinct requires anticipation of a future event. One wonders where thought begins and instinct ends. Also, might one include intuition as a contributor to thought, as something standing on it's own right, or as an aspect of instinct.
In any event, thought may not be conscious, but a product of drill, practice, brain washing or propaganda, feelings translated into words on which decisions are based.
Thinking is normally considered to be a verbal activity, but as we know any of the senses might be involved and some of the senses bypassed. Decisions might thus arise before verbal reasoning, as would occur in many athletic activities, in art, creativity, symbolic reasoning.
How a decision making entity arrives at a decision is obviously varied. At some point, however, sufficient energy is released to make a decision have effect in action. Decision taking is thus a different stage of activity when compared with considering.
All decisions are a result of a trigger and once the trigger is activated a result representing a choice occurs. One aspect of this is to consider whether decisions arise from triggers that are sufficiently well understood. We make many choices, and often very quickly. How effectively we arrive at a choice that requires no correction is critical in evaluating decision making ability.
Obviously, many people will make decisions thinking that they can revise them later on based on a variety of criteria. The ability to move along the decision taking course of actions will also vary from person to person. Some will make few revisions and fast decisions while others will make many revisions and innumerable choices to refine decisions further and further over time.
Thus, it is not simple to measure decision taking abilities as these may themselves be a matter if style, which again may be a matter of intelligence, memory abilities, visualization, patience, breadth of consideration, and so on. Gets pretty complex doesn't it. That should teach us how divided seemingly simple processes can become, and even Occam's Razor may need a prior Razor!
Now that the ability to make decisions is regarded as unmeasured in IQ tests, one might ask what the ability comprises.
In it's simplest form the making of a decision based on what we call thought as compared with instinct requires anticipation of a future event. One wonders where thought begins and instinct ends. Also, might one include intuition as a contributor to thought, as something standing on it's own right, or as an aspect of instinct.
In any event, thought may not be conscious, but a product of drill, practice, brain washing or propaganda, feelings translated into words on which decisions are based.
Thinking is normally considered to be a verbal activity, but as we know any of the senses might be involved and some of the senses bypassed. Decisions might thus arise before verbal reasoning, as would occur in many athletic activities, in art, creativity, symbolic reasoning.
How a decision making entity arrives at a decision is obviously varied. At some point, however, sufficient energy is released to make a decision have effect in action. Decision taking is thus a different stage of activity when compared with considering.
All decisions are a result of a trigger and once the trigger is activated a result representing a choice occurs. One aspect of this is to consider whether decisions arise from triggers that are sufficiently well understood. We make many choices, and often very quickly. How effectively we arrive at a choice that requires no correction is critical in evaluating decision making ability.
Obviously, many people will make decisions thinking that they can revise them later on based on a variety of criteria. The ability to move along the decision taking course of actions will also vary from person to person. Some will make few revisions and fast decisions while others will make many revisions and innumerable choices to refine decisions further and further over time.
Thus, it is not simple to measure decision taking abilities as these may themselves be a matter if style, which again may be a matter of intelligence, memory abilities, visualization, patience, breadth of consideration, and so on. Gets pretty complex doesn't it. That should teach us how divided seemingly simple processes can become, and even Occam's Razor may need a prior Razor!
Monday, 2 November 2009
It's Wheat Free Cake and Coffee at Neros in Exeter UK
Types of motion
Once, you are familiar with physics and physics theories, you are familar with the idea that motion amd useable space that we see as three dimensions comes out of the big bang, an almighty explosion that theory claims occured over 13.6 billion years ago.
There is an additional motion that we see as time that can be thought of as motion of the components of the three dimensions of space, but it is different from conventional thinking.
Time occurs as the fabric of space itself expands at every point in all three directions simultaneuosly ! What we know as the past is very very tiny and what we will know as the future is very very large. Time does not exist except as our motion in space that exists now as present, but that is because the present is a present and we are presented with it. The past present and future in our reality co-exist. Exept that, we choose to think incorrectly that we can go only in one direction of their prior or future existence. This is our real delusion. We will not, however always be presented with this limitation.
In the PPF world we all will experience the full dimensions of other spaces, but not governed by time our mind's viewpoint in the now as we know it.
Once, you are familiar with physics and physics theories, you are familar with the idea that motion amd useable space that we see as three dimensions comes out of the big bang, an almighty explosion that theory claims occured over 13.6 billion years ago.
There is an additional motion that we see as time that can be thought of as motion of the components of the three dimensions of space, but it is different from conventional thinking.
Time occurs as the fabric of space itself expands at every point in all three directions simultaneuosly ! What we know as the past is very very tiny and what we will know as the future is very very large. Time does not exist except as our motion in space that exists now as present, but that is because the present is a present and we are presented with it. The past present and future in our reality co-exist. Exept that, we choose to think incorrectly that we can go only in one direction of their prior or future existence. This is our real delusion. We will not, however always be presented with this limitation.
In the PPF world we all will experience the full dimensions of other spaces, but not governed by time our mind's viewpoint in the now as we know it.
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